1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

FX Recommends - EURUSD Analysis

Discussion in 'Forex Discussions' started by fx-recommends, Jun 28, 2009.

  1. fx-recommends

    fx-recommends Content Contributor

    Joined:
    Aug 6, 2008
    Messages:
    670
    Likes Received:
    18
    The single currency came under the same pressure versus the greenback to slide from above 1.41 to stand above 1.39 currently. We have seen the beginning of this week the germane IFO of June which was expected to be 85 coming at 85.9 after last week release Germane ZEW of June which surged to 44.8 from 35 in May while the current conditions figure improved to -89 from -93 in May and we have seen also the flash reading of June PMI manufacturing index which was expected to get better to 40 from 39.6 coming at 40.5 and PMI services index of this same month which was expected to be 45.6 from 45.2 in May coming at 44.5 but these data could not make a major change of the single currency direction last week waiting god willing for this week final releases of EU Manufacturing PMI index which is expected to improve to 42.4 from 40.7 in May and EU PMI Services index of June which is expected to be 44.5 from 44.8 in May. Also it is important this week to wait for the release of EU CPI preliminary release of June which was unchanged in May y/y and the ECB president Mr. Trichet has indicated in his recent press conference after the ECB decision to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1% on the 4th of this month that the ECB is expecting the inflation to be from 0.1% to 0.5% and if we have had negative rates this week this can dampen the single currency. We wait also to see the ECB interest rate decision which is widely expected to be unchanged at 1% and Trichet press conference to know its recent evaluation after its decision last week to extend its lending offering to the European countries to 442Bln Euros for one year in another extra easing decision in which can move current economic recession.

    Best wishes

    FX Consultant
    Walid Salah El Din
    E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
    http://www.fx-recommends.com
     
  2. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2009
    Messages:
    239
    Likes Received:
    0
    What's In Store for the EUR and the USD Next Week?
    At the end of a volatile trading week which has seen a turmoil in Greek bonds and has culminated with a formal request from Greece for financial aid from the EU and IMF, I explore the important economic events for the week ahead and ponder what they may bring for the EUR and the USD, I examine this morning's EUR strengthening and analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP currency pairs, I note the bullish breakout of the USD vs. JPY, I examine the weakness of the GBP and CAD after series of disappointing economic reports from the U.K. and Canada.
    This is my forecast!

    "P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
    Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
    Database 2000 records 1.33811 (Last Close)
    2002-08-27 00~00
    2010-04-23 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  3. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2009
    Messages:
    239
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trade Idea:EUR/USD - Buy-stop at 1.2650 Target: 1.2800 ; Stop: 1.2575
    ======================================================================
    Price action on EUR/USD, a chart of which is shown, has just broken down swiftly below the key 1.2500 support level, establishing a new 18-month low and lending a significant additional bearish bias to this strongly downtrending currency pair.
    A continuation of the steep overall downtrend has now been confirmed, with price currently targeting a key downside support target in the 1.2300 price region.
    Any substantial breakdown below 1.2300 could potentially begin to target the technically- and psychologically-important 1.2000 level, which is also around a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bearish run.
    The broken 1.2500 level should now serve as tentative upside resistance within the context of the strong current downtrend.


    "P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 200X3 or(4.68%) HI/LO
    Data 1.6038 - 0.9607 ~ 92 Month ~ 2796 Day
    Database 2000 records 1.23566 (Last Close)
    2002-09-17 00~00
    2010-05-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    1.6200|~2OO||____________________+_______________________|-1.01%|68.63%
    1.6000|~4OO||________________x___x_+_____________________|0.24%|66.55%
    1.5800|~6OO||________________x_o_x_o_+___________________|1.48%|64.46%
    1.5600|~8OO||________________x_o_x_o___+_________________|2.73%|62.38%
    1.5400|~1OOO|________________x_o___o_____+_______________|3.98%|60.3%
    1.5200|~12OO|________________x_____o_______+_________+___|5.23%|58.22%
    1.5000|~14OO|________________x_____o_________+_______x_+_|6.47%|56.14%
    1.4800|~16OO|________________x_____o_x_________+_____x_o_|7.72%|54.05%
    1.4600|~18OO|________________x_____o_x_o_____x___+___x_o_|8.97%|51.97%
    1.4400|~2OOO|________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o___+_x_o_|10.21%|49.89%
    1.4200|~22OO|________________x_____o_x_o_____x_o_____x_o_|11.46%|47.81%
    1.4000|~24OO|________________x_____o___o_____x_o_____x_o_|12.71%|45.73%
    1.3800|~26OO|________________x_________o_____x_o_____x_o_|13.95%|43.65%
    1.3600|~28OO|________x_______x_________o_____x_o_x___x_o_|15.2%|41.56%
    1.3400|~3OOO|________x_o_x___x_________o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_|16.45%|39.48%
    1.3200|~32OO|________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|17.7%|37.4%
    1.3000|~34OO|________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_|18.94%|35.32%
    1.2800|~36OO|____x___x_o___o_x_______+_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_|20.19%|33.24%
    1.2600|~38OO|____x_o_x_____o_x_____+___o_x_o_x_o_______o_|21.44%|31.15%
    1.2400|~4OOO|====x=o=x=====o=x===+=====o===o=+=========o=|22.68%|29.07%
    1.2200|~42OO|____x_o_x_____o_x_+___________+___________+_|23.93%|26.99%
    1.2000|~44OO|____x_o_x_____o_x___________________________|25.18%|24.91%
    1.1800|~46OO|x___x_o_______o_____________________________|26.42%|22.83%
    1.1600|~48OO|x_o_x_______+_______________________________|27.67%|20.75%
    1.1400|~5OOO|x_o_x_____+_________________________________|28.92%|18.66%
    1.1200|~52OO|x_o_x___+___________________________________|30.17%|16.58%
    1.1000|~54OO|x_o_x_+_____________________________________|31.41%|14.5%
    1.0800|~56OO|x_o_+_______________________________________|32.66%|12.42%
    1.0600|~58OO|x_+_________________________________________|33.91%|10.34%
    1.0400|~6OOO|x___________________________________________|35.15%|8.25%
    1.0200|~62OO|x___________________________________________|36.4%|6.17%
    1.0000|~64OO|x___________________________________________|37.65%|4.09%
    0.9800|~66OO|x___________________________________________|38.9%|2.01%
    0.9600|~68OO|____________________________________________|40.14%|-0.07%
    Column|||||||1_5_1_5_9_4_3_8_2_3_3_1_4_1_4_4_1_1_5_3_1_1_|
    Count||||||||1___O___________1_____O___2_____1_O_____O_3_|


    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  4. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2009
    Messages:
    239
    Likes Received:
    0
    First.
    Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy Limit at 1.2100; Target: 1.2250; Stop: 1.2025.
    Then.
    Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell Limit at 1.2250; Target: 1.1650 ; Stop: 1.2325.

    The EUR/USD finally broke below the triangle, but did so after two false breakouts. The pair
    has moved higher after putting in lows below 1.1900. The week was closed out with the EUR/USD
    at 1.2110. The resistance comes in at 1.2150-1.2200. This is the former support level which
    created the triangle (see chart at bottom). If that resistance band hold, expect continued
    selling pressure. Support comes in at 1.2050, 1.1950 and 1.1875. Penetration of the recent
    low at 1.1875 has a target of 1.1650.

    "P&F EURUSD10080 Box Size 250X3 or(6.18%) HI/LO
    Data 1.6038 - 0.8225 ~ 152 Month ~ 4627 Day
    Database 662 records 1.21112 (Last Close)
    1997-10-05 00~00
    2010-06-06 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    1.6000|~25O||______________________x_+_________________|0.24%|94.53%
    1.5750|~5OO||______________________x_o_+_______________|1.8%|91.49%
    1.5500|~75O||______________________x_o___+_____________|3.35%|88.45%
    1.5250|~1OOO|______________________x_o_____+_______+___|4.91%|85.41%
    1.5000|~125O|______________________x_o_______+_____x_+_|6.47%|82.37%
    1.4750|~15OO|______________________x_o_x_______+___x_o_|8.03%|79.33%
    1.4500|~175O|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_+_x_o_|9.59%|76.29%
    1.4250|~2OOO|______________________x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_|11.15%|73.25%
    1.4000|~225O|______________________x_o___o_____x_o_x_o_|12.71%|70.21%
    1.3750|~25OO|______________________x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|14.27%|67.17%
    1.3500|~275O|__________________x___x_____o_____x_o_x_o_|15.82%|64.13%
    1.3250|~3OOO|__________________x_o_x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_|17.38%|61.09%
    1.3000|~325O|__________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|18.94%|58.05%
    1.2750|~35OO|______________x___x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|20.5%|55.02%
    1.2500|~375O|______________x_o_x_o_x_____o___o___o___o_|22.06%|51.98%
    1.2250|~4OOO|__x___________x_o_x_o_x_______________+_o_|23.62%|48.94%
    1.2000|~425O|__x_o_________x_o___o_x_____________+___o_|25.18%|45.9%
    1.1750|~45OO|==x=o=====x===x=====o=============+=====+=|26.74%|42.86%
    1.1500|~475O|__x_o_____x_o_x_________________+_________|28.3%|39.82%
    1.1250|~5OOO|o_x_o_____x_o_x_______________+___________|29.85%|36.78%
    1.1000|~525O|o_x_o_____x_o_______________+_____________|31.41%|33.74%
    1.0750|~55OO|o___o_____x_______________+_______________|32.97%|30.7%
    1.0500|~575O|____o_____x_____________+_________________|34.53%|27.66%
    1.0250|~6OOO|____o_____x___________+___________________|36.09%|24.62%
    1.0000|~625O|____o_____x_________+_____________________|37.65%|21.58%
    0.9750|~65OO|____o_____x_______+_______________________|39.21%|18.54%
    0.9500|~675O|____o_x___x_____+_________________________|40.77%|15.5%
    0.9250|~7OOO|____o_x_o_x___+___________________________|42.32%|12.46%
    0.9000|~725O|____o_x_o_x_+_____________________________|43.88%|9.42%
    0.8750|~75OO|____o_x_o_x_______________________________|45.44%|6.38%
    0.8500|~775O|____o_x_o_________________________________|47%|3.34%
    0.8250|~8OOO|____o_+___________________________________|48.56%|0.3%
    0.8000|~825O|____+_____________________________________|50.12%|-2.74%
    Column|||||||3_6_1_5_4_1_3_7_3_6_7_1_8_3_9_3_3_8_8_1_1_|
    Count||||||||____6_____3___________7_______________O_2_|


    [​IMG]
    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  5. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2009
    Messages:
    239
    Likes Received:
    0
    The EUR penetrated resistance at 1.2500 and the descending trend line. It is too early to call this a reversal, but the primary down trend is weakening. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 1.2500. Failure of the rising trend line would warn of a primary down swing with a target of parity - confirmed if support at 1.1900 is broken. Respect of support would suggest a reversal, but confirmation would only come from a higher trough followed by a new high.

    "P&F EURUSD240 Box Size 10X3 or(2.22%) HI/LO
    Data 1.5144 - 1.1876 ~ 8 Month ~ 247.17 Day
    Database 1050 records 1.29296 (Last Close)
    2009-11-11 16~00
    2010-07-16 20~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    1.5100|~1OO||____x_+___________________|0.29%|27.15%
    1.5000|~2OO||x_o_x_o_+_________________|0.95%|26.31%
    1.4900|~3OO||x_o_x_o___+_______________|1.61%|25.46%
    1.4800|~4OO||______o_____+_____________|2.27%|24.62%
    1.4700|~5OO||______o_______+___________|2.93%|23.78%
    1.4600|~6OO||______o_________+_________|3.59%|22.94%
    1.4500|~7OO||______o___________+_______|4.25%|22.09%
    1.4400|~8OO||______o_____________+_____|4.91%|21.25%
    1.4300|~9OO||______o_______________+___|5.57%|20.41%
    1.4200|~1OOO|______o_________________+_|6.23%|19.57%
    1.4100|~11OO|______o___________________|6.89%|18.73%
    1.4000|~12OO|______o___________________|7.55%|17.88%
    1.3900|~13OO|______o___________________|8.21%|17.04%
    1.3800|~14OO|______o_x_________________|8.87%|16.2%
    1.3700|~15OO|______o_x_o_______________|9.54%|15.36%
    1.3600|~16OO|______o_x_o_x_____________|10.2%|14.52%
    1.3500|~17OO|______o___o_x_o___________|10.86%|13.67%
    1.3400|~18OO|__________o_x_o___________|11.52%|12.83%
    1.3300|~19OO|__________o___o___________|12.18%|11.99%
    1.3200|~2OOO|______________o___________|12.84%|11.15%
    1.3100|~21OO|______________o___________|13.5%|10.31%
    1.3000|~22OO|______________o_x_______x_|14.16%|9.46%
    1.2900|~23OO|______________o_x_o_____x_|14.82%|8.62%
    1.2800|~24OO|______________o_x_o_____x_|15.48%|7.78%
    1.2700|~25OO|______________o_x_o_____x_|16.14%|6.94%
    1.2600|~26OO|______________o___o_x___x_|16.8%|6.1%
    1.2500|~27OO|__________________o_x_o_x_|17.46%|5.25%
    1.2400|~28OO|__________________o_x_o_x_|18.12%|4.41%
    1.2300|~29OO|__________________o_x_o_x_|18.78%|3.57%
    1.2200|~3OOO|__________________o___o_x_|19.44%|2.73%
    1.2100|~31OO|______________________o_x_|20.1%|1.89%
    1.2000|~32OO|______________________o_x_|20.76%|1.04%
    1.1900|~33OO|______________________o_+_|21.42%|0.2%
    1.1800|~34OO|______________________+___|22.08%|-0.64%
    Column|||||||2_2_3_1_3_5_3_1_4_8_4_7_1_|
    Count||||||||______6_______O_________1_|


    [​IMG]
    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
  6. forex4you

    forex4you New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2010
    Messages:
    137
    Likes Received:
    0
    EUR/USD: Technical Analysis 21 July 2010

    The higher high and lower close yesterday marked a possible turning point – an outside reversal bar from which the market may begin a new trend down. This morning prices continued falling until they reached support from an old channel line. They will probably break down through this line and run until achieving support from the monthly pivot at around 1.2795.
     
  7. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2009
    Messages:
    239
    Likes Received:
    0
    The euro is testing the rising trendline; penetration would indicate that the recent rally has
    weakened, and reversal below 1.2500 would indicate another test of primary support at 1.1900.
    I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

    "P&F EURUSD5 Box Size 25X3 or(0.58%) HI/LO
    Data 1.3333 - 1.2663 ~ 1 Month ~ 23.49 Day
    Database 5000 records 1.27105 (Last Close)
    2010-07-28 11~15
    2010-08-20 22~55 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    1.3325|~25|||______________+___________________________|0.06%|5.23%
    1.3300|~5O|||______________x_o_________________________|0.25%|5.03%
    1.3275|~75|||______________x_o_+_______________________|0.44%|4.83%
    1.3250|~1OO||______x_______x_o___+_____________________|0.62%|4.64%
    1.3225|~125||______x_o_x___x_o_x___+___________________|0.81%|4.44%
    1.3200|~15O||______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___+_________________|1%|4.24%
    1.3175|~175||______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_______________|1.19%|4.04%
    1.3150|~2OO||______x_o_x_o___o_x_o_______+_____________|1.37%|3.85%
    1.3125|~225||______x_o_____+_o_x_o_________+___________|1.56%|3.65%
    1.3100|~25O||__x___x_____+___o_x_o___________+_________|1.75%|3.45%
    1.3075|~275||__x_o_x___+_____o___o_____________+_______|1.94%|3.25%
    1.3050|~3OO||__x_o_x_+___________o_______________+_____|2.12%|3.06%
    1.3025|~325||o_x_o_x_____________o_________________+___|2.31%|2.86%
    1.3000|~35O||o_x_o_______________o___________________+_|2.5%|2.66%
    1.2975|~375||o_+_________________o_____________________|2.69%|2.46%
    1.2950|~4OO||+___________________o_____________________|2.87%|2.27%
    1.2925|~425||____________________o_x___________________|3.06%|2.07%
    1.2900|~45O||====================o=x=o=x===x===x===x===|3.25%|1.87%
    1.2875|~475||____________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.44%|1.67%
    1.2850|~5OO||____________________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.62%|1.48%
    1.2825|~525||________________________o_x_o_x_o___o_x_o_|3.81%|1.28%
    1.2800|~55O||________________________o___o_x_____o_x_o_|4%|1.08%
    1.2775|~575||============================o=x=====o=+=o=|4.19%|0.88%
    1.2750|~6OO||____________________________o_______+___o_|4.37%|0.69%
    1.2725|~625||________________________________________o_|4.56%|0.49%
    1.2700|~65O||________________________________________o_|4.75%|0.29%
    1.2675|~675||________________________________________o_|4.94%|0.09%
    1.2650|||||||________________________________________+_|5.12%|-0.1%
    Column|||||||3_5_4_1_5_4_3_6_1_6_1_3_5_4_6_6_3_3_5_5_9_|
    Count||||||||______O_________O___5_____________________|

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
  8. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2009
    Messages:
    239
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trade Idea:EUR/USD - Buy Stop at 1.3900; Target: 1.4350 ; Stop: 1.3800.

    "P&F EURUSD1 Box Size 12X3 or(0.26%) HI/LO
    Data 1.4151 - 1.3862 ~ 0.12 Month ~ 3.44 Day
    Database 2010 records 1.3873 (Last Close)
    2010-10-14 21~15
    2010-10-18 07~55 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    1.4160|~12|||________+_______________|-0.06%|
    1.4148|~24|||________x_+_____________|0.02%||
    1.4136|~36|||________x_o_+___________|0.11%||
    1.4124|~48|||________x_o___+_________|0.19%||
    1.4112|~6O|||____x___x_o_____+_______|0.28%||
    1.4100|~72|||____x_o_x_o_______+_____|0.36%||
    1.4088|~84|||____x_o_x_o_x_______+___|0.45%||
    1.4076|~96|||x___x_o___o_x_o_______+_|0.53%||
    1.4064|~1O8||x_o_x_____o_x_o_________|0.61%||
    1.4052|~12O||__o_x_____o___o_________|0.7%|11
    1.4040|~132||__o_x_________o_x_______|0.78%||
    1.4028|~144||__o_x_________o_x_o_____|0.87%||
    1.4016|~156||__o___________o_x_o_x___|0.95%||
    1.4004|~168||______________o_x_o_x_o_|1.04%||
    1.3992|~18O||______________o___o_x_o_|1.12%||
    1.3980|~192||__________________o_+_o_|1.21%||
    1.3968|~2O4||__________________+___o_|1.29%||
    1.3956|~216||______________________o_|1.38%||
    1.3944|~228||______________________o_|1.46%||
    1.3932|~24O||______________________o_|1.55%||
    1.3920|~252||______________________o_|1.63%||
    1.3908|~264||______________________o_|1.72%||
    1.3896|~276||______________________o_|1.8%|||
    1.3884|~288||======================o=o1.89%||
    1.3872|~3OO||______________________o_|1.97%||
    1.3860|~312||______________________+_|2.06%||
    Column|||||||2_5_8_3_6_8_3_8_4_5_3_1_||||||||
    Count||||||||______________________2_||||||||


    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
  9. fxcoaching

    fxcoaching New Member

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2010
    Messages:
    5
    Likes Received:
    0
Loading...

Share This Page