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GBPUSD has formed a short term cycle bottom

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ForexCycle.com, Aug 13, 2009.

  1. ForexCycle.com

    ForexCycle.com Content Contributor

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    GBPUSD has formed a short term cycle bottom at 1.6391 level on 4-hour chart. Further rise is expected later today and target would be at 1.6750 zone. Near term support is at 1.6391, below this level will suggest that the downtrend from 1.7042 has resumed, then deeper decline could be seen to 1.6000 level.

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    Daily Forex Analysis
     
  2. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    GBP/USD's fall extends further to as low as 1.6274 in early US session. Break of 1.6338 support serves as an important alert that a medium term top is in place at 1.7043. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and further decline should be seen to 1.5983 support to confirm the bearish case. On the upside, above 1.6438 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery is expected to be limited below 1.6663 resistance and bring fall resumption [actionforex]

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    [​IMG] PDF
     
  3. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    Recovery in GBP/USD is still in progress and another rise cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless,
    upside is expected to be limited below 1.6622 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below
    1.6152 will target 1.5983 key support next.[actionforex]

    P&F GBPUSD60 Box Size 35X3 or(0.64%) HI/LO
    Data 1.7042 - 1.5984 ~ 2 Month ~ 60.04 Day
    2009-06-29 19~00
    2009-08-28 20~00
    BJF Trading Group

    1.7045|~35|||________________________________________________________________|-0.02%|6.64%
    1.7010|~70|||________________________________x_o_____________________________|0.19%|6.42%
    1.6975|~105||________________________________x_o_____________________________|0.39%|6.2%
    1.6940|~140||________________________________x_o_____________________________|0.6%|5.98%
    1.6905|~175||________________________________x_o_____________________________|0.8%|5.76%
    1.6870|~210||________________________________x_o_____________________________|1.01%|5.54%
    1.6835|~245||________________________________x_o_____________________________|1.21%|5.32%
    1.6800|~280||________________________________x_o_x___________________________|1.42%|5.11%
    1.6765|~315||________________________________x_o_x_o_________________________|1.63%|4.89%
    1.6730|~350||x_______________________________x_o_x_o_________________________|1.83%|4.67%
    1.6695|~385||x_o_____________________________x_o___o_________________________|2.04%|4.45%
    1.6660|~420||x_o_____________________________x_____o_____x___________________|2.24%|4.23%
    1.6625|~455||x_o_____________________________x_____o_____x_o_________________|2.45%|4.01%
    1.6590|~490||x_o_____________________________x_____o_____x_o_x___x___x_______|2.65%|3.79%
    1.6555|~525||__o_________________x___x___x___x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|2.86%|3.57%
    1.6520|~560||__o_x_______________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|3.06%|3.35%
    1.6485|~595||__o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|3.27%|3.13%
    1.6450|~630||__o_x_o_________x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o___o_x_o_x_o___o_____|3.47%|2.92%
    1.6415|~665||__o___o_________x_o_x_o_x_o___o_x_____o_______o_x_o_x_____o_____|3.68%|2.7%
    1.6380|~700||______o_________x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_____________o_x_o_______o_x___|3.88%|2.48%
    1.6345|~735||______o_____x___x_o_x_o_______o_______________o_x_________o_x_o_|4.09%|2.26%
    1.6310|~770||______o_____x_o_x_o_x_________________________o_x_________o_x_o_|4.3%|2.04%
    1.6275|~805||______o_x___x_o_x_o___________________________o___________o_x_o_|4.5%|1.82%
    1.6240|~840||______o_x_o_x_o_x_________________________________________o_x___|4.71%|1.6%
    1.6205|~875||______o_x_o_x_o_x_________________________________________o_x___|4.91%|1.38%
    1.6170|~910||______o_x_o_x_o_x_________________________________________o_____|5.12%|1.16%
    1.6135|~945||______o_x_o_x_o_x_______________________________________________|5.32%|0.94%
    1.6100|~980||______o___o_x_o_x_______________________________________________|5.53%|0.73%
    1.6065|~1015|__________o_x_o_________________________________________________|5.73%|0.51%
    1.6030|~1050|__________o_x___________________________________________________|5.94%|0.29%
    1.5995|~1085|__________o_____________________________________________________|6.14%|0.07%
    1.5960|~1120|________________________________________________________________|6.35%|-0.15%
    Column|~1155|5_9_3_125_8_108_115_8_6_6_4_4_6_19_103114_3_6_119_6_6_4_4_126_3_|
    Count
     
  4. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    US Dollar On The Move As GBP Expected To Stand

    The British Pound remained bid overnight and surged higher following the Bank of England Minutes, and the GBP/USD may continue to retrace the sell-off from the previous month as it finds near-term support. Nevertheless, market participants anticipate the U.K. economy to emerge from the recession in the third quarter, with economists forecasting GDP to expand 0.2% from the three-months through June, and long-term expectations for higher borrowing costs may continue to drive the exchange rate higher over the coming months as policy makers hold an improved outlook for future growth.
    The BoE Minutes showed the MPC voted unanimously to hold the benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and to maintain its GBP 175B asset purchase program in an effort to support a sustainable recovery.[actionforex]

    "P&F GBPUSD240 Box Size 225X3 or(4.01%) HI/LO
    Data 2.0158 - 1.3502 ~ 15 Month ~ 470.33 Day
    Database 2000 records 1.65397 (Last Close)
    2008-07-09 04~00
    2009-10-22 12~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group"


    2.0250|~225||__________________________________________|-0.46%|49.98%
    2.0025|~45O||x_o_______________________________________|0.66%|48.31%
    1.9800|~675||x_o_______________________________________|1.78%|46.64%
    1.9575|~9OO||__o_______________________________________|2.89%|44.98%
    1.9350|~1125|__o_______________________________________|4.01%|43.31%
    1.9125|~135O|__o_______________________________________|5.12%|41.65%
    1.8900|~1575|__o_______________________________________|6.24%|39.98%
    1.8675|~18OO|__o_______________________________________|7.36%|38.31%
    1.8450|~2O25|__o_x_____________________________________|8.47%|36.65%
    1.8225|~225O|__o_x_o___________________________________|9.59%|34.98%
    1.8000|~2475|__o_x_o___________________________________|10.71%|33.31%
    1.7775|~27OO|__o_x_o___________________________________|11.82%|31.65%
    1.7550|~2925|__o___o_x_________________________________|12.94%|29.98%
    1.7325|~315O|______o_x_o_______________________________|14.05%|28.31%
    1.7100|~3375|______o_x_o_______________________________|15.17%|26.65%
    1.6875|~36OO|======o===o=========================x=====|16.29%|24.98%
    1.6650|~3825|__________o_x___________________x___x_o___|17.4%|23.32%
    1.6425|~4O5O|__________o_x_o_________________x_o_x_o_x_|18.52%|21.65%
    1.6200|~4275|__________o_x_o_________________x_o_x_o_x_|19.63%|19.98%
    1.5975|~45OO|__________o_x_o_________________x_o___o_x_|20.75%|18.32%
    1.5750|~4725|==========o=x=o=================x=====o===|21.87%|16.65%
    1.5525|~495O|__________o_x_o_x___x___________x_________|22.98%|14.98%
    1.5300|~5175|__________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_______x_________|24.1%|13.32%
    1.5075|~54OO|______________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_________|25.22%|11.65%
    1.4850|~5625|______________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_________|26.33%|9.98%
    1.4625|~585O|______________o___o___o_x_o_x_o_x_________|27.45%|8.32%
    1.4400|~6O75|______________________o___o_x_o_x_________|28.56%|6.65%
    1.4175|~63OO|__________________________o_x_o_x_________|29.68%|4.98%
    1.3950|~6525|__________________________o_x_o_x_________|30.8%|3.32%
    1.3725|~675O|__________________________o___o___________|31.91%|1.65%
    1.3500|~6975|__________________________________________|33.03%|-0.01%
    Column|~72OO|2_124_7_3_106_9_4_4_4_5_4_7_5_5_133_4_5_3_|
    Count


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    Attached Files:

  5. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    GBP/USD rise further to as high as 1.6841 so far and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.5706 to 1.6692 from 1.6261 at 1.6870. Break will target 1.7043 medium term resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6689 will indicate that an intraday top is formed and bring consolidation. But another rise is still expected as long as 1.6512 support holds.

    [​IMG]

    Excel_091111_gbpusd_1h.xls
     
  6. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    My CCI study gave us a valid signal about upside correction yesterday. Price topped at 1.6647 but failed to stay above 1.6600 area so far, keep my bearish scenario intact with technical bearish target remains at 1.6400 and 1.6250 area. The bias is neutral in nearest term but I still prefer a bearish scenario. For me only movement above 1.6692 could be a serious threat to my bearish outlook. Immediate support at 1.6550. Break below that area should trigger further bearish momentum at least towards 1.6475 area. Initial resistance at 1.6647 (yesterday's high). Break above that area should trigger further bullish momentum testing 1.6692 and should be seen as potential threat to my bearish outlook. I will be watching any reaction around those levels before make any decision today[actionforex]

    "P&F GBPUSD240 Box Size 10X3 or(1.93%) HI/LO
    Data 1.7042 - 1.4109 ~ 8 Month ~ 244.83 Day
    Database 1050 records 1.65859 (Last Close)
    2009-03-24 08~00
    2009-11-24 04~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    1.7100|~1OO||____________________________|-0.34%|21.2%
    1.7000|~2OO||______________X_____________|0.25%|20.49%
    1.6900|~3OO||______________Xo____________|0.83%|19.78%
    1.6800|~4OO||______________Xo__________X_|1.42%|19.07%
    1.6700|~5OO||____________X_Xo__X_______Xo|2.01%|18.36%
    1.6600|~6OO||______X_X_X_XoXoX_Xo__X_X_Xo|2.59%|17.66%
    1.6500|~7OO||______XoXoXoXoXoXoXo__XoXoXo|3.18%|16.95%
    1.6400|~8OO||______XoXoXoXoXoXoXo__XoXoX_|3.77%|16.24%
    1.6300|~9OO||______XoXoXo_oXo_oXo__Xo_o__|4.35%|15.53%
    1.6200|~1OOO|______XoXo___oX__o_o__X_____|4.94%|14.82%
    1.6100|~11OO|______XoX____oX____oX_X_____|5.53%|14.11%
    1.6000|~12OO|______XoX____o_____oXoX_____|6.11%|13.4%
    1.5900|~13OO|______Xo___________oXoX_____|6.7%|12.69%
    1.5800|~14OO|______X____________o_o______|7.29%|11.99%
    1.5700|~15OO|______X_____________________|7.87%|11.28%
    1.5600|~16OO|______X_____________________|8.46%|10.57%
    1.5500|~17OO|______X_____________________|9.05%|9.86%
    1.5400|~18OO|______X_____________________|9.64%|9.15%
    1.5300|~19OO|______X_____________________|10.22%|8.44%
    1.5200|~2OOO|______X_____________________|10.81%|7.73%
    1.5100|~21OO|______X_____________________|11.4%|7.02%
    1.5000|~22OO|____X_X_____________________|11.98%|6.32%
    1.4900|~23OO|__X_XoX_____________________|12.57%|5.61%
    1.4800|~24OO|__XoXoX_____________________|13.16%|4.9%
    1.4700|~25OO|X_XoXoX_____________________|13.74%|4.19%
    1.4600|~26OO|XoXo_oX_____________________|14.33%|3.48%
    1.4500|~27OO|_oX__oX_____________________|14.92%|2.77%
    1.4400|~28OO|_oX__o______________________|15.5%|2.06%
    1.4300|~29OO|_oX_________________________|16.09%|1.35%
    1.4200|~3OOO|_o__________________________|16.68%|0.64%
    1.4100|~31OO|____________________________|17.26%|-0.06%
    Column|~32OO|2573462774434717345933833353|
    Count|~33OO|______2_______O_____________|


    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group-091124_gbpusd1h.xls
     
  7. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment as sideway trading from 1.6166 continues. Another rise cannot be ruled out but still, upside is expected to be limited well below 1.6515 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.6166 will indicate that whole fall from 1.6875 has resumed and should target a retest of 1.5706 support next.[actionforex]

    "P&F GBPUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(4.33%) HI/LO
    Data 2.1161 - 1.3502 ~ 92 Month ~ 2795 Day
    Database 2000 records 1.63294 (Last Close)
    2002-04-22 00~00
    2009-12-16 00~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    2.1250|~25O||____________________________________|-0.42%|57.38%
    2.1000|~5OO||_________________X__________________|0.76%|55.53%
    2.0750|~75O||_________________Xo_________________|1.94%|53.68%
    2.0500|~1OOO|_______________X_Xo_________________|3.12%|51.83%
    2.0250|~125O|_______________XoXoX________________|4.31%|49.98%
    2.0000|~15OO|_______________XoXoXo_______________|5.49%|48.13%
    1.9750|~175O|_______________Xo_oXo_______________|6.67%|46.27%
    1.9500|~2OOO|_________X_____X__o_o_______________|7.85%|44.42%
    1.9250|~225O|_________Xo____X____o_______________|9.03%|42.57%
    1.9000|~25OO|_____X___Xo__X_X____o_______________|10.21%|40.72%
    1.8750|~275O|_____XoX_Xo__XoX____o_______________|11.39%|38.87%
    1.8500|~3OOO|_____XoXoXo__XoX____oX______________|12.58%|37.02%
    1.8250|~325O|_____XoXoXoX_Xo_____oXo_____________|13.76%|35.17%
    1.8000|~35OO|_____XoXoXoXoX______oXo_____________|14.94%|33.31%
    1.7750|~375O|_____XoXo_oXoX______oXo_____________|16.12%|31.46%
    1.7500|~4OOO|_____Xo___o_oX______o_o_____________|17.3%|29.61%
    1.7250|~425O|_____X______o_________o_____________|18.48%|27.76%
    1.7000|~45OO|_____X________________o__________X__|19.66%|25.91%
    1.6750|~475O|===X=X================o==========XoX|20.84%|24.06%
    1.6500|~5OOO|_X_XoX________________oX_________XoX|22.03%|22.2%
    1.6250|~525O|_XoXoX________________oXo________XoX|23.21%|20.35%
    1.6000|~55OO|=XoXoX================oXo========XoX|24.39%|18.5%
    1.5750|~575O|_XoXo_________________oXo________Xo_|25.57%|16.65%
    1.5500|~6OOO|_Xo___________________o_oX_X_____X__|26.75%|14.8%
    1.5250|~625O|_X______________________oXoXoX___X__|27.93%|12.95%
    1.5000|~65OO|_X______________________oXoXoXo__X__|29.11%|11.09%
    1.4750|~675O|_X______________________o_oXoXoX_X__|30.3%|9.24%
    1.4500|~7OOO|oX________________________o_o_oXoX__|31.48%|7.39%
    1.4250|~725O|______________________________oXoX__|32.66%|5.54%
    1.4000|~75OO|______________________________oXoX__|33.84%|3.69%
    1.3750|~775O|______________________________o_o___|35.02%|1.84%
    1.3500|~8OOO|____________________________________|36.2%|-0.01%
    Column|~825O|194541654783473935631414734443644154|
    Count|~85OO||_____3______________1_2__________3__|


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    BJF-Trading-Group-GBPUSD_4h30min_091216.xls
     
  8. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    GBP/USD: Eyes Range Support at 1.57 - Throwback Offers More Bearish Confirmation

    4H: The GBP/USD was showing strong reversal signals, yesterday breaking below 1.62. In the Asian session and early European session, the market had a throwback from 1.6130 to 1.6270 before a heavy drop leading into the US session.

    The throwback confirms bearish mode, but we may end the week seeing support at the the channel support level near 1.6050. The stochastic might develop a bullish divergence if this area holds. The market is also at the 61.8%-78.6% retracement zone.

    Daily: The daily shows three consecutive sessions of strong bearish action. It looks poised to continue next week.

    With this in mind, looking back at the 4H chart, a rally from the 1.6050 level should be expected as a correction rally. The bearish projection in the short/intermediate term is still the 1.57-1.58 area.[Written by CMS Forex]

    "P&F GBPUSD1440 Box Size 240X4 or(5.51%) CLOSE
    Data 2.1065 - 1.3771 ~ 92 Month ~ 2797 Day
    Database 2000 records 1.61112 (Last Close)
    2002-05-27 00~00
    2010-01-22 00~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    2.1120|~24O||____________________________________________________|-0.26%|53.37%
    2.0880|~48O||________________________x___________________________|0.88%|51.62%
    2.0640|~72O||________________________x_o_________________________|2.02%|49.88%
    2.0400|~96O||________________________x_o_________________________|3.16%|48.14%
    2.0160|~12OO|________________________x_o_x_______________________|4.3%|46.39%
    1.9920|~144O|________________________x_o_x_o_____________________|5.44%|44.65%
    1.9680|~168O|________________________x_o_x_o_____________________|6.57%|42.91%
    1.9440|~192O|________________x_______x_o_x_o_____________________|7.71%|41.17%
    1.9200|~216O|________________x_o_____x_o___o_____________________|8.85%|39.42%
    1.8960|~24OO|________x_______x_o_____x_____o_____________________|9.99%|37.68%
    1.8720|~264O|________x_o_x___x_o_____x_____o_____________________|11.13%|35.94%
    1.8480|~288O|________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_____o_x___________________|12.27%|34.2%
    1.8240|~312O|________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_____o_x_o_________________|13.41%|32.45%
    1.8000|~336O|________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_________________|14.55%|30.71%
    1.7760|~36OO|________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_________________|15.69%|28.97%
    1.7520|~384O|________x_o___o___o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_________________|16.83%|27.22%
    1.7280|~4O8O|________x_________o___o_x_____o___o_________________|17.97%|25.48%
    1.7040|~432O|________x_____________o___________o_________________|19.11%|23.74%
    1.6800|~456O|====x===x=========================o=========x===x===|20.25%|22%
    1.6560|~48OO|____x_o_x_________________________o_________x_o_x_o_|21.39%|20.25%
    1.6320|~5O4O|x___x_o_x_________________________o_x_______x_o_x_o_|22.53%|18.51%
    1.6080|~528O|x_o_x_o_x_________________________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_|23.66%|16.77%
    1.5840|~552O|x=o=x=o=x=========================o=x=o=====x=o=x=o=|24.8%|15.02%
    1.5600|~576O|x_o_x_o___________________________o_x_o_____x_o_____|25.94%|13.28%
    1.5360|~6OOO|x_o_______________________________o___o_____x_______|27.08%|11.54%
    1.5120|~624O|x_____________________________________o_____x_______|28.22%|9.8%
    1.4880|~648O|x_____________________________________o_x___x_______|29.36%|8.05%
    1.4640|~672O|x_____________________________________o_x_o_x_______|30.5%|6.31%
    1.4400|~696O|______________________________________o_x_o_x_______|31.64%|4.57%
    1.4160|~72OO|______________________________________o_x_o_x_______|32.78%|2.82%
    1.3920|~744O|______________________________________o_x_o_x_______|33.92%|1.08%
    1.3680|~768O|______________________________________o___o_________|35.06%|-0.66%
    Column|~792O|8_4_6_5_146_5_5_8_9_4_5_167_4_125_134_115_5_135_5_4_|
    Count


    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  9. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    GBP/USD closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday signalling a possible end to the two-day bounce off the 50% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible. If it extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of 2009's rally crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.[Written by HY Markets]

    "P&F GBPUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(4.33%) HI/LO
    Data 2.1161 - 1.3502 ~ 92 Month ~ 2799 Day
    Database 2000 records 1.54478 (Last Close)
    2002-06-27 00~00
    2010-02-24 00~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    2.1250|~25O||_____________________________________|-0.42%|57.38%
    2.1000|~5OO||_________________X___________________|0.76%|55.53%
    2.0750|~75O||_________________Xo__________________|1.94%|53.68%
    2.0500|~1OOO|_______________X_Xo__________________|3.12%|51.83%
    2.0250|~125O|_______________XoXoX_________________|4.31%|49.98%
    2.0000|~15OO|_______________XoXoXo________________|5.49%|48.13%
    1.9750|~175O|_______________Xo_oXo________________|6.67%|46.27%
    1.9500|~2OOO|_________X_____X__o_o________________|7.85%|44.42%
    1.9250|~225O|_________Xo____X____o________________|9.03%|42.57%
    1.9000|~25OO|_____X___Xo__X_X____o________________|10.21%|40.72%
    1.8750|~275O|_____XoX_Xo__XoX____o________________|11.39%|38.87%
    1.8500|~3OOO|_____XoXoXo__XoX____oX_______________|12.58%|37.02%
    1.8250|~325O|_____XoXoXoX_Xo_____oXo______________|13.76%|35.17%
    1.8000|~35OO|_____XoXoXoXoX______oXo______________|14.94%|33.31%
    1.7750|~375O|_____XoXo_oXoX______oXo______________|16.12%|31.46%
    1.7500|~4OOO|_____Xo___o_oX______o_o______________|17.3%|29.61%
    1.7250|~425O|_____X______o_________o______________|18.48%|27.76%
    1.7000|~45OO|=====X================o==========X===|19.66%|25.91%
    1.6750|~475O|___X_X________________o__________XoX_|20.84%|24.06%
    1.6500|~5OOO|_X_XoX________________oX_________XoXo|22.03%|22.2%
    1.6250|~525O|_XoXoX________________oXo________XoXo|23.21%|20.35%
    1.6000|~55OO|_XoXoX________________oXo________XoXo|24.39%|18.5%
    1.5750|~575O|oXoXo_________________oXo________Xo_o|25.57%|16.65%
    1.5500|~6OOO|oXo===================o=oX=X=====X==o|26.75%|14.8%
    1.5250|~625O|o_______________________oXoXoX___X___|27.93%|12.95%
    1.5000|~65OO|________________________oXoXoXo__X___|29.11%|11.09%
    1.4750|~675O|________________________o_oXoXoX_X___|30.3%|9.24%
    1.4500|~7OOO|__________________________o_o_oXoX___|31.48%|7.39%
    1.4250|~725O|______________________________oXoX___|32.66%|5.54%
    1.4000|~75OO|______________________________oXoX___|33.84%|3.69%
    1.3750|~775O|______________________________o_o____|35.02%|1.84%
    1.3500|~8OOO|_____________________________________|36.2%|-0.01%
    Column|||||||3545416547834739356314147344436441545|
    Count||||||||_____3______________1_2__________3___|

    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

    [​IMG]
     
  10. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
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    Messages:
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    Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.4798 is treated as the third leg of consolidation pattern that started at 1.4783 and is possibly targeting 1.5381 resistance. Nevertheless, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 to conclude the consolidation and bring down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.5118 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Decisive break of 1.4783 low will confirm that whole decline from 1.6456 has resumed and should target 200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364.

    In the bigger picture, there is no change in our bearish view. That is, medium term rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5814 resistance is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.[Written by ActionForex.com]

    "P&F GBPUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(4.33%) HI/LO
    Data 2.1161 - 1.3502 ~ 92 Month ~ 2797 Day
    Database 2000 records 1.51921 (Last Close)
    2002-08-05 00~00
    2010-04-02 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    2.1250|~25O||_____________________________________|-0.42%|57.38%
    2.1000|~5OO||_________________X___________________|0.76%|55.53%
    2.0750|~75O||_________________Xo__________________|1.94%|53.68%
    2.0500|~1OOO|_______________X_Xo__________________|3.12%|51.83%
    2.0250|~125O|_______________XoXoX_________________|4.31%|49.98%
    2.0000|~15OO|_______________XoXoXo________________|5.49%|48.13%
    1.9750|~175O|_______________Xo_oXo________________|6.67%|46.27%
    1.9500|~2OOO|_________X_____X__o_o________________|7.85%|44.42%
    1.9250|~225O|_________Xo____X____o________________|9.03%|42.57%
    1.9000|~25OO|_____X___Xo__X_X____o________________|10.21%|40.72%
    1.8750|~275O|_____XoX_Xo__XoX____o________________|11.39%|38.87%
    1.8500|~3OOO|_____XoXoXo__XoX____oX_______________|12.58%|37.02%
    1.8250|~325O|_____XoXoXoX_Xo_____oXo______________|13.76%|35.17%
    1.8000|~35OO|_____XoXoXoXoX______oXo______________|14.94%|33.31%
    1.7750|~375O|_____XoXo_oXoX______oXo______________|16.12%|31.46%
    1.7500|~4OOO|_____Xo___o_oX______o_o______________|17.3%|29.61%
    1.7250|~425O|_____X______o_________o______________|18.48%|27.76%
    1.7000|~45OO|_____X________________o__________X___|19.66%|25.91%
    1.6750|~475O|___X_X________________o__________XoX_|20.84%|24.06%
    1.6500|~5OOO|_X_XoX________________oX_________XoXo|22.03%|22.2%
    1.6250|~525O|_XoXoX________________oXo________XoXo|23.21%|20.35%
    1.6000|~55OO|_XoXoX________________oXo________XoXo|24.39%|18.5%
    1.5750|~575O|oXoXo_________________oXo________Xo_o|25.57%|16.65%
    1.5500|~6OOO|oXo___________________o_oX_X_____X__o|26.75%|14.8%
    1.5250|~625O|o_______________________oXoXoX___X__o|27.93%|12.95%
    1.5000|~65OO|________________________oXoXoXo__X__o|29.11%|11.09%
    1.4750|~675O|________________________o_oXoXoX_X___|30.3%|9.24%
    1.4500|~7OOO|__________________________o_o_oXoX___|31.48%|7.39%
    1.4250|~725O|______________________________oXoX___|32.66%|5.54%
    1.4000|~75OO|______________________________oXoX___|33.84%|3.69%
    1.3750|~775O|______________________________o_o____|35.02%|1.84%
    1.3500|~8OOO|_____________________________________|36.2%|-0.01%
    Column|||||||3545416547834739356314147344436441547|
    Count||||||||_____3______________1_2__________3___|


    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  11. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    The pound reversed below the new support level at $1.53, warning of a bull trap.
    Expect another test of $1.48.
    Recovery above $1.53, however, would signal a rally to $1.60, confirmed if the declining trendline is broken.

    "P&F GBPUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(4.33%) HI/LO
    Data 2.1161 - 1.3502 ~ 91 Month ~ 2797 Day
    Database 2000 records 1.52649 (Last Close)
    2002-09-02 00~00
    2010-04-30 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  12. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
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    Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.4580 Target: 1.4160 ; Stop: 1.4700 .
    ============================================
    Pound/Dollar traded hesitantly on Wednesday, in converse with negative Interbank sentiment at
    nearly -59%. The Cable was moving within the narrow 1.4337 - 1.4448 range, closing the day at
    1.4386. Today Sterling is making recovery efforts, reaching the high levels from the beginning
    of the week. First resistance is today's top at 1.4535. Break above it should extend the
    bullish movement further towards 1.4627. The nearest support is yesterday's bottom at 1.4337.
    Going bellow it should extend British Pound's reduction further down towards next downward
    objective 1.4250.

    "P&F GBPUSD15 Box Size 30X3 or(0.62%) HI/LO
    Data 1.4958 - 1.423 ~ 0,5 Month ~ 15.01 Day
    Database 1050 records 1.4559 (Last Close)
    2010-05-12 12~15
    2010-05-27 12~30 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    1.4970|~3O|||_____________________________________ ___________|-0.08%|5.2%
    1.4940|~6O|||__+__________________________________ ___________|0.12%|4.99%
    1.4910|~9O|||o_x_+________________________________ ___________|0.32%|4.78%
    1.4880|~12O||o_x_o_+______________________________ ___________|0.52%|4.57%
    1.4850|~15O||o_x_o___+____________________________ ___________|0.72%|4.36%
    1.4820|~18O||o___o_____+__________________________ ___________|0.92%|4.15%
    1.4790|~21O||____o_______+________________________ ___________|1.12%|3.94%
    1.4760|~24O||____o_________+______________________ ___________|1.32%|3.72%
    1.4730|~27O||____o___________+____________________ ___________|1.52%|3.51%
    1.4700|~3OO||____o_____________+__________________ ___________|1.72%|3.3%
    1.4670|~33O||____o_______________+________________ ___________|1.93%|3.09%
    1.4640|~36O||____o_________________+______________ ___________|2.13%|2.88%
    1.4610|~39O||____o_x_________________+____________ _________+_|2.33%|2.67%
    1.4580|~42O||====o=x=o=================+========== =========x=|2.53%|2.46%
    1.4550|~45O||____o_x_o___________________+_____+__ _________x_|2.73%|2.25%
    1.4520|~48O||____o___o_____________________+___x_+ _________x_|2.93%|2.04%
    1.4490|~51O||________o_x___x_________________+_x_o _+_______x_|3.13%|1.83%
    1.4460|~54O||________o_x_o_x_o_____x_______x___x_o _x_+_____x_|3.33%|1.62%
    1.4430|~57O||________o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x___x_o_x_o _x_o_x___x_|3.53%|1.41%
    1.4400|~6OO||________o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o _x_o_x_o_x_|3.73%|1.19%
    1.4370|~63O||________o_x_o___o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o ___o_x_o_x_|3.93%|0.98%
    1.4340|~66O||________o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o____ ___o_x_o_+_|4.13%|0.77%
    1.4310|~69O||________o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x__________ ___o_x_+___|4.33%|0.56%
    1.4280|~72O||________o_______o_x_o_x_o_x__________ ___o_+_____|4.53%|0.35%
    1.4250|~75O||________________o___o___o____________ ___+_______|4.73%|0.14%
    1.4220|~78O||_____________________________________ ___________|4.93%|-0.07%
    Column|~9OO||4_3_1_3_1_7_4_4_8_4_4_7_7_6_3_4_4_6_5 _3_6_5_3_8_|
    Count||~93O||____3___1____________________________ ___________|


    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  13. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2009
    Messages:
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    Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral as it retreats sharply from intraday high of 1.4885. Note that
    recovery from 1.4230 is expected to be limited by 100% projection of 1.4230 to 1.4769 from 1.4346 at
    1.4885. Break of 1.4644 minor support will suggest that such recovery is completed and flip intraday bias
    back to the downside. Further break of 1.4346 will confirm this case and target a retest of 1.4230 low
    next. However, decisive break of 1.4885 will target 1.5053 resistance next.

    "P&F GBPUSD10080 Box Size 450X3 or(7.71%) HI/LO
    Data 2.454 - 1.0463 ~ 389 Month ~ 11851 Day
    Database 1694 records 1.48097 (Last Close)
    1978-01-01 00~00
    2010-06-13 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    2.4750|~45O||______________+___________________________________________________________|-0.86%|136.55%
    2.4300|~9OO||______________x_o_________________________________________________________|0.98%|132.25%
    2.3850|~135O|______________x_o_+_______________________________________________________|2.81%|127.95%
    2.3400|~18OO|______________x_o___+_____________________________________________________|4.65%|123.65%
    2.2950|~225O|______x___x___x_o_____+___________________________________________________|6.48%|119.34%
    2.2500|~27OO|______x_o_x_o_x_o_______+_________________________________________________|8.31%|115.04%
    2.2050|~315O|______x_o_x_o_x_o_________+_______________________________________________|10.15%|110.74%
    2.1600|~36OO|______x_o_x_o___o___________+_________________________________+___________|11.98%|106.44%
    2.1150|~4O5O|______x_o_x___+_o_____________+_______________________________x_+_________|13.81%|102.14%
    2.0700|~45OO|__x___x_o___+___o_______________+_____________________________x_o_+_______|15.65%|97.84%
    2.0250|~495O|__x_o_x___+_____o_________________+___+_______________________x_o___+_____|17.48%|93.54%
    1.9800|~54OO|__x_o_x_+_______o_____________x_____+_x_+_____________________x_o_____+___|19.32%|89.24%
    1.9350|~585O|o_x_o_+_________o_x___________x_o_____x_o_+_______________x___x_o_______+_|21.15%|84.94%
    1.8900|~63OO|o_x_+___________o_x_o_x_______x_o_____x_o___+_________x___x_o_x_o_________|22.98%|80.64%
    1.8450|~675O|o_+_____________o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x___x_o_____+_______x_o_x_o_x_o_________|24.82%|76.34%
    1.8000|~72OO|+_______________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______+_____x_o_x_o_x_o_________|26.65%|72.03%
    1.7550|~765O|____________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________+___x_o___o_x_o_________|28.48%|67.73%
    1.7100|~81OO|____________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_____x___x_+_x_____o___o_________|30.32%|63.43%
    1.6650|~855O|____________________o_x_o___o_x_o_x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___x___|32.15%|59.13%
    1.6200|~9OOO|____________________o_x_____o_x_o_______o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_|33.99%|54.83%
    1.5750|~945O|____________________o_x_____o_x_________o_x_o_x_o___o_x_______+_o_x_o_x_o_|35.82%|50.53%
    1.5300|~99OO|____________________o_x_____o___________o_x_o_______o_x_____+___o___o_x_o_|37.65%|46.23%
    1.4850|~1O35|____________________o_x_________________o_x_________o_x___+_________o_x_o_|39.49%|41.93%
    1.4400|~1O8O|____________________o_x_______________+_o___________o_x_+___________o_x_o_|41.32%|37.63%
    1.3950|~1125|____________________o_x_____________+_______________o_+_____________o_+___|43.15%|33.33%
    1.3500|~117O|____________________o_x___________+_________________+_______________+_____|44.99%|29.03%
    1.3050|~1215|____________________o_x_________+_________________________________________|46.82%|24.73%
    1.2600|~126O|____________________o_x_______+___________________________________________|48.66%|20.42%
    1.2150|~13O5|____________________o_x_____+_____________________________________________|50.49%|16.12%
    1.1700|~135O|____________________o_x___+_______________________________________________|52.32%|11.82%
    1.1250|~1395|____________________o_x_+_________________________________________________|54.16%|7.52%
    1.0800|~144O|____________________o_+___________________________________________________|55.99%|3.22%
    1.0350|~1485|____________________+_____________________________________________________|57.82%|-1.08%
    Column|||||||3_5_3_8_5_5_3_6_1_3_1_1_5_4_7_1_8_5_3_6_1_5_3_4_3_3_7_1_3_4_5_9_1_3_6_6_5_|
    Count||||||||________________5___9_8_______O_________2_____________1_________3_________|


    [​IMG]
    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  14. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2009
    Messages:
    239
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    As expected, Cable moved up in the Asian and the European sessions today to touch a high of 1.5968. The pair honoured the Resistance at 1.5970 (61.8% retracement of the fall from 1.7042 (Aug-09) to 1.4227 (May-09)) and is currently trading lower. We may see the markets go down towards 1.5900-1.5700, before another rally beyond 1.60 figure in the coming days.

    "P&F GBPUSD1 Box Size 5X3 or(0.09%) CLOSE
    Data 1.5965 - 1.5862 ~ 0 Month ~ 0.53 Day
    Database 768 records 1.59201 (Last Close)
    2010-08-03 02~34
    2010-08-03 15~24 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    1.5965|~5||||______________________________|0%|0.65%
    1.5960|~1O|||______________x___x_______+___|0.03%|0.62%
    1.5955|~15|||__________x___x_o_x_o_____x_+_|0.06%|0.59%
    1.5950|~2O|||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_|0.09%|0.55%
    1.5945|~25|||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_|0.13%|0.52%
    1.5940|~3O|||__________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_|0.16%|0.49%
    1.5935|~35|||__________x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.19%|0.46%
    1.5930|~4O|||__________x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.22%|0.43%
    1.5925|~45|||______x___x_____o_x_o___o___o_|0.25%|0.4%
    1.5920|~5O|||______x_o_x_____o_x_______+_o_|0.28%|0.37%
    1.5915|~55|||______x_o_x_____o_x_____+___o_|0.31%|0.33%
    1.5910|~6O|||______x_o_x_____o_x___+_____+_|0.34%|0.3%
    1.5905|~65|||______x_o_x_____o_x_+_________|0.38%|0.27%
    1.5900|~7O|||______x_o_x_____o_+___________|0.41%|0.24%
    1.5895|~75|||______x_o_______+_____________|0.44%|0.21%
    1.5890|~8O|||______x_______+_______________|0.47%|0.18%
    1.5885|~85|||o_____x_____+_________________|0.5%|0.15%
    1.5880|~9O|||o_x___x___+___________________|0.53%|0.11%
    1.5875|~95|||o_x_o_x_+_____________________|0.56%|0.08%
    1.5870|~1OO||o_x_o_x_______________________|0.6%|0.05%
    1.5865|~1O5||o_x_o_________________________|0.63%|0.02%
    1.5860|~11O||o_+___________________________|0.66%|-0.01%
    Column|~115||6_4_3_1_6_1_4_5_1_1_7_3_3_6_8_|
    Count|~12O|||______2___2_____2_2___________|


    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
  15. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2009
    Messages:
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    GBP/USD
    It is more likely to go down to around 1.6150 or 1.6100, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.6200 - 1.6400

    Trade Idea: GBP/USD- Buy (Stop or Limit) at 1.6020; Target: 1.6440 ; Stop: 1.5900.

    "P&F GBPUSD10080 Box Size 250X5 or(7.21%) HI/LO
    Data 2.1161 - 1.3503 ~ 246.67 Month ~ 7252 Day
    Database 1037 records 1.61809 (Last Close)
    1990-12-23 00~00
    2010-10-31 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    2.1250|~25O||______________________________+_________|-0.42%|57.37%
    2.1000|~5OO||______________________________x_+_______|0.76%|55.52%
    2.0750|~75O||______________________________x_o_+_____|1.94%|53.67%
    2.0500|~1OOO|______________________________x_o___+___|3.12%|51.82%
    2.0250|~125O|______+_______________________x_o_____+_|4.31%|49.97%
    2.0000|~15OO|______x_+_____________________x_o_______|5.49%|48.12%
    1.9750|~175O|______x_o_+___________________x_o_______|6.67%|46.26%
    1.9500|~2OOO|o_____x_o___+_____________x___x_o_______|7.85%|44.41%
    1.9250|~225O|o_____x_o_____+___________x_o_x_o_______|9.03%|42.56%
    1.9000|~25OO|o_____x_o_______+_____x___x_o_x_o_______|10.21%|40.71%
    1.8750|~275O|o_x___x_o_________+___x_o_x_o_x_o_______|11.39%|38.86%
    1.8500|~3OOO|o_x_o_x_o___________+_x_o_x_o_x_o_______|12.58%|37.01%
    1.8250|~325O|o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_______|13.76%|35.16%
    1.8000|~35OO|o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_______|14.94%|33.3%
    1.7750|~375O|o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_______|16.12%|31.45%
    1.7500|~4OOO|o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o___o_x_o_______|17.3%|29.6%
    1.7250|~425O|o_x_o_x_o_____x_______x_____o___o_______|18.48%|27.75%
    1.7000|~45OO|o_x_o___o_____x_o_____x_________o_x_____|19.66%|25.9%
    1.6750|~475O|o_x_____o_____x_o_x___x_________o_x_o___|20.84%|24.05%
    1.6500|~5OOO|o_x_____o_x___x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o___|22.03%|22.2%
    1.6250|~525O|o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_|23.21%|20.34%
    1.6000|~55OO|o_______o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_|24.39%|18.49%
    1.5750|~575O|________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_|25.57%|16.64%
    1.5500|~6OOO|________o_x_o_x_o___o_x_________o_x_o_x_|26.75%|14.79%
    1.5250|~625O|________o_x_o_x___+_o_x_________o_x_o_x_|27.93%|12.94%
    1.5000|~65OO|________o_x_o___+___o_x_________o_x_o_x_|29.11%|11.09%
    1.4750|~675O|________o_x___+_____o_x_______+_o_x_o_x_|30.3%|9.23%
    1.4500|~7OOO|________o_x_+_______o_x_____+___o_x_o_x_|31.48%|7.38%
    1.4250|~725O|________o_+_________o_x___+_____o_x_o_+_|32.66%|5.53%
    1.4000|~75OO|________+___________o_x_+_______o_x_+___|33.84%|3.68%
    1.3750|~775O|____________________o_+_________o_+_____|35.02%|1.83%
    1.3500|~8OOO|____________________+___________+_______|36.2%|-0.02%
    Column|||||||1_1_7_1_2_9_6_9_7_5_1_2_6_8_9_1_2_1_1_8_|
    Count||||||||5_1___2_3___________2_1_______5_9_3_1___|

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    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
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