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GOLD - Weekly Report

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by SeM0s, Feb 21, 2010.

  1. SeM0s

    SeM0s New Member

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    Summary

    Long term outlook: Up
    Medium Term Outlook: Down
    Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Up
    Revision Point: Break above 1260
    Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
    Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase.
    The price action during the last week invalidated our preferred count and raised our previously alternative count to the preferred status.

    [​IMG]

    With a possible wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (1074.90), followed by wave A.2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75), wave B.2 at the February 5, ’10 low, we are now in the making of a five wave advance to complete wave C.2. As per this scenario, our target for the completion of wave 2 will be above the January11, ’10 high at 1161 and close to the 1185 to the 1190 level, but keeping below the December 3, ’10 highs at 1126.30). However, given our current outlook, we will expect a downward move at the completion of wave 2 to make lows below the February 5’10 low.

    [​IMG]


    As a current alternative, we have a completed wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75) followed by wave I.3 at the January 28, ’10 low, followed by a.II at the February 3, ’10 high (1125.10), wave b.II at the February 5, ’10 low and now forming wave c.II to complete wave II.3. As per this alternative scenario, we would expect wave c.II to terminate at around the 1137 level, from where the downward move can be expected to resume
     
  2. SeM0s

    SeM0s New Member

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    GOLD - February 27,2010

    Summary

    Long term outlook: Up
    Medium Term Outlook: Down
    Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
    Revision Point: Break above 1260
    Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
    Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase.

    [​IMG]

    The market did not have any surprises during the last week. The price unfolded quite as expected. With a completed wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75) followed by wave I.3 at the January 28, ’10 low, followed by a.II at the February 3, ’10 high (1125.10), wave b.II at the February 5, ’10 low. We are now at or close to the completion of what we expect to be wave c.II. However, there still seems to be a potential for the price reaching close to the 1138 to 1142 mark.

    [​IMG]

    It is also important to keep in mind an alternative interpretation of the move down since December 03, ’09, while planning any potential trades:

    With a possible wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (1074.90), followed by wave A.2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75), wave B.2 at the February 5, ’10 low (1044.55), we are now in the making of a five wave advance to complete wave C.2. As per this scenario, our target for the completion of wave 2 will be above the January 11, ’10 high at 1161 and close to the 1185 to the 1190 level, but keeping below the December 3, ’10 highs at 1126.30).
     
  3. SeM0s

    SeM0s New Member

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    Re: GOLD - March 07, 2010

    Summary

    • Long term outlook: Up
    • Medium Term Outlook: Down
    • Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
    • Revision Point: Break above 1260
    • Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
    • Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase.

    There is no change in the situation, as it appeared at the time of our last report. Both the alternatives presented in our last report are still valid. We present our current report with updated images and reproducing the relevant parts of the last report:

    [​IMG]

    With a completed wave 2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75) followed by wave I.3 at the January 28, ’10 low, followed by a.II at the February 3, ’10 high (1125.10), wave b.II at the February 5, ’10 low. We are now at or close to the completion of what we expect to be wave c.II. However, there still seems to be a potential for the price reaching close to the 1138 to 1142 mark.

    [​IMG]

    It is also important to keep in mind an alternative interpretation of the move down since December 03, ’09, while planning any potential trades (as presented in the second image):

    With a possible wave 1 at the December 22, ’09 low (1074.90), followed by wave A.2 at the January 11, ’10 high (1161.75), wave B.2 at the February 5, ’10 low (1044.55), we are now in the making of a five wave advance to complete wave C.2. As per this scenario, our target for the completion of wave 2 will be above the January 11, ’10 high at 1161 and close to the 1185 to the 1190 level, but keeping below the December 3, ’10 highs at 1126.30).
     
    #3 SeM0s, Mar 8, 2010
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2010
  4. SeM0s

    SeM0s New Member

    Joined:
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    Summary

    Long term outlook: Up
    Medium Term Outlook: Down
    Short Term Outlook: Sideways to Down
    Revision Point: Break above 1260
    Potential Medium Term Targets: 680 and lower
    Preferred Strategy: Take short term positions only, till we see an end of the corrective phase.

    [​IMG]

    The market saw a decline during the last week. We may have seen the completion of wave II.3 at the March 3, ’10 high (1045.10) – as shown in the main image. This would imply that we are now in the third wave decline. If this is correct, then we are likely to see the swiftest and the longest sell off awaiting us in the upcoming days, without getting a break above the March 3, ’10 high at 1045.10. This sell off, if it is a thirdwave sell off, is likely to be longer in magnitude than the sell off witnessed from December 3, ’09 high (1226.30) to the December 22, 09 low (1074.90).

    [​IMG]

    Alternatively, the March 3. ’10 high may not be a completed wave II.3, but rather a wave b of a possible second wave Expanded Flat correction underway, after the completion of a possible wave i.C.2 at the February 22, ’10 high (1130.85). If this scenario is to hold valid, we are likely to see a wave iii.C.2 rally in the upcoming days, taking the price above the February 22, ’10. However, before this rally, we are likely to see fall below the February 25, ’10 low at the 1087.72 mark, possibly to between the 1080 to 1070 mark, completing wave c.ii.C.2.
     
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