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Joblessness Hampers Recovery Hope

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by mercaforex, Nov 19, 2009.

  1. mercaforex

    mercaforex New Member

    Jul 1, 2009
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    By Mercaforex

    The life of the USD was given another breath of oxygen on Wednesday as the U.S. stock indexes went south. After three days of gains from Wall Street, share values dropped yesterday when they could not hold back the negative tides created by poor housing data. The USD finds itself still slugging it out near rather significant lows against the major currencies but optimism was not able to sustain itself among those with risk appetite Wednesday. Housing Starts and Building Permits figures were both below forecasts and this reinforced opinions that have been heard from the ‘back of the room’ that the American economy is a long way away from finding a true recovery.
    Today the weekly Unemployment Claims statistics will be released and they are forecasted to almost match last week’s totals. The jobless problems and worries about declining consumer sentiment continue to loom and earlier this week the Core Retail Sales figures from the U.S. proved that not all is wine and roses. The stock market has enjoyed a significant rally since March but many investors continue to fear that there could be a ‘leg down’ on the horizon. The Unemployment figure today will be important but also the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index reading will be brought forth and is expected to show a slight improvement. Talk on the street continues to ask how the American economy will get a kick start and it has been suggested that a second stimulus package may be needed. Weary analysts however ask where exactly that type of money would come from taking into consideration the deficit that is growing daily within the American landscape. The USD continues to be at the mercy of what is taking place largely from equity. Tomorrow is a light day of data so today’s reports could propel the marketplace with an impact.

    The EUR lost some ground to the USD yesterday and continued what has been a week of rather interesting range trading. Data from the European Union has been rather light all week long. CPI releases on Monday showed that inflation is not showing any signs of a sudden emergence. Yesterday Current Account numbers were published and were below expectations. Today the Italian Trade Balance numbers will be brought forth and tomorrow the German PPI statistics will be published. The EUR in many respects continues to trade in a dollar centric mode based on risk appetite. However storm clouds continue to circle the EUR periphery with ‘rumors’ that the European banks have still not been forthcoming regarding the amount of bad debt that has not found the ‘light’ of a public accounting yet. The EUR has been consistently strong since the downturn in the USD, but the question for traders is how long will this song play on?

    The Sterling has been rather strong over the last couple of weeks having climbed from the rather lackluster low end of its range against the USD. Wednesday’s trading continued what has been a rather tight performance the last few days as investors continue to monitor the comings and goings of the Bank of England. The MPC Meeting Minutes were published yesterday and showed without any great surprise that the nine voting members all wanted to keep interest rates at their record low marks. However, it was shown that some divergence is growing on exactly how the stimulus program should be dealt with and a disagreement on the amount of money that is being injected into the management of the system in order to deal with the economic downturn. Today the U.K. will release its Retail Sales figures and they are expected to show a gain. The GBP is near the high end of its range against the USD and taking into consideration the propensity the Sterling has shown to range, traders may find opportunities.

    The JPY got stronger against the USD on Wednesday as Asian traders, perhaps spooked by the less than glorious economic data that abounds from Japan, and a rather poor performance from the Nikkei sought a safer haven. The JPY like the USD is a harbor when fear comes to the fore. The international stock markets have turned in solid performances for a while now, but the reality is that caution still is prevalent and because of this the JPY stays on the strong side of its range.

    Gold Signaling A Pause? Dollar Bottoming?

    We started the day off weak and really tried to push lower. Of course, this was not possible as buyers came in, pushed us back up past the open and managed to form another green candle. This candle in combination with the previous two candles looks to be signalling towards another possible up move in the SPX. We may gap higher on the open once again tomorrow. Remember: “The trend is your friend.” Support 1100.4, 1097.8, 1093.5, 1092.6, 1087.4, 1081.5, 1077, 1071.5, 1059.3 1052.4, 1045.5, 1029.4, 1019.6, 1009.1, 992.25 Resistance 1113.45, 1132.2, 1153.8

    Notice the highlighted candles on this Daily Chart. Each one represents a relatively weak day for this precious metal. What is interesting is that while gold may have traded higher afterwards, it was usually a signal that things were slowing down, and led to consolidation. I think there is still much potential in the XAU market, I will continue to hold my long term position, having raised my stops on my long term position to just under 1024. Using this base I am able to add to the position during consolidation and get out of some of it for profit if I see significant weakness. This market needs to take a moment to catch its breath, and while I have been saying this for awhile, every good trader needs to keep that in the back of their minds. Look for consolidation soon, and use that as your next point of entry. Support 1144.07, 1121.9, 1119.25, 1111.14, 1100.30, 1104.5, 1100, 1096.15, 1092.87, 1087.65, 1081.05, 1078.37, 1070.6, 1066.1, 1051.3, 1046.7 Resistance 1153.00…

    It’s amazing how trading is playing out in the Sterling. I have maintained that we must recognize a trading channel when we are in one, and once again this currency is bound by the rules of the channel. When we were unable to break past 1.6876 weakness may have been on the cards, but I must admit yesterday’s buying tail threw me off. The beauty of trading this range is that it doesn’t really matter what happens in the course of one day, but what’s truly important is how the next few days and\or week will play out. The Pound will have to hold 1.6515 in order to be able to maintain its push higher towards 1.7042. If we close below 1.6741 expect a down move towards that support level. Support 1.6741, 1.6515, 1.6485, 1.6249, 1.6119, 1.5776 Resistance 1.6876, 1.6876, 1.7042

    As opposed to the Pound which trader lower today, the Euro zone Currency has put on a relatively good show trading 100 pips off its lows. Dollar weakness throughout the day (with slight retracement) allowed the Euro to push higher and attempt to get back on track towards 1.5284. After consolidating between 1.5050 and 1.4813, if we are able to break over 1.500 I would expect us to be able to test 1.5062 break through, and move higher. It seem like only dollar strength can stand in the Euro’s way. However, The Greenback does seem to be bottoming out, as its declines have not been as large over the past few months, and when looking at a dollar index chart, then maybe (and this is a big MAYBE) the dollar will settle around these levels before it starts to climb higher. While I do believe this to be more of a consolidation pattern before the next down move we do have to remain vigilant and trade cautiously. (Notice the wide stops I am using)Support 1.4935, 1.4813, 1.4626, 1.4465 Resistance 1.5021, 1.5062, 1.5144, 1.5284, 1.5343, 1.5460

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