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Little Event Risk And Improved Stability Highlights NZDUSD Range

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ActionForex.com, Nov 8, 2008.

  1. ActionForex.com

    ActionForex.com Content Contributor

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    Though in the middle of a wider range and engrained in an even larger dominant trend, a short-term NZDUSD range looks established enough to hold up through a relatively open to the new week. This is reasonable to forecast considering the lack of market moving data from either side of...

    complete article here...
     
  2. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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  3. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    NZDUSD: Economic development in New Zealand has not been as good as that in
    Australia. While the market anticipates the RBA will start raising interest
    rate early next year, the RBNZ will probably maintain its loose monetary policy
    until 2H10.Although NZDUSD rose (+7% since our July update) in tandem with
    AUDUSD, commodity prices as well as stock markets in recent month, investors
    are likely waiting for more convincing evidence indicating recovery in New
    Zealand's economy.[actionforex]

    P&F NZDUSD60 Box Size 250X3 or(1.15%) HI/LO
    Data 0.6895 - 0.6194 ~ 2 Month ~ 60.04 Day
    2009-06-29 20~00
    2009-08-28 21~00
    BJF Trading Group


    0.6900|~25||________________________________________________|-0.07%|11.4%
    0.6875|~50||__________________________________x_______x_o_x_|0.29%|10.99%
    0.6850|~75||__________________________________x_o_____x_o_x_|0.65%|10.59%
    0.6825|~100|__________________________________x_o_____x_o_x_|1.02%|10.19%
    0.6800|~125|__________________________x_______x_o_____x_o_x_|1.38%|9.78%
    0.6775|~150|__________________________x_o_x___x_o_____x_o___|1.74%|9.38%
    0.6750|~175|__________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_____|2.1%|8.98%
    0.6725|~200|__________________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____|2.47%|8.57%
    0.6700|~225|__________________________x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_____|2.83%|8.17%
    0.6675|~250|__________________________x_____o_x_o_x_o_______|3.19%|7.77%
    0.6650|~275|__________________________x_____o_x_o___________|3.55%|7.36%
    0.6625|~300|__________________x___x___x_____o_x_____________|3.92%|6.96%
    0.6600|~325|______________x___x_o_x_o_x_____o_______________|4.28%|6.55%
    0.6575|~350|______________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________|4.64%|6.15%
    0.6550|~375|______________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________|5%|5.75%
    0.6525|~400|o_____________x_o_x_o___o_x_____________________|5.37%|5.34%
    0.6500|~425|o_________x___x_o_______o_x_____________________|5.73%|4.94%
    0.6475|~450|o_________x_o_x_________o_______________________|6.09%|4.54%
    0.6450|~475|o_________x_o_x_________________________________|6.45%|4.13%
    0.6425|~500|o_________x_o_x_________________________________|6.82%|3.73%
    0.6400|~525|o_________x_o___________________________________|7.18%|3.33%
    0.6375|~550|o_x_______x_____________________________________|7.54%|2.92%
    0.6350|~575|o_x_o_____x_____________________________________|7.9%|2.52%
    0.6325|~600|o_x_o_x___x_____________________________________|8.27%|2.11%
    0.6300|~625|o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________________________|8.63%|1.71%
    0.6275|~650|o_x_o_x_o_x_____________________________________|8.99%|1.31%
    0.6250|~675|o___o_x_o_x_____________________________________|9.35%|0.9%
    0.6225|~700|____o_x_o_x_____________________________________|9.72%|0.5%
    0.6200|~725|____o___o_______________________________________|10.08%|0.1%
    0.6175|~750|________________________________________________|10.44%|-0.31%
    Column|~775|125_7_5_5_124_8_4_5_4_4_6_134_3_7_119_4_3_8_5_4_|
    Count
     
  4. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    NZDCAD=(Canadian Dollar) X (New Zealand Dollar)
    ======================
    The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13). A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).

    Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.(Large Speculators are Too Short US Dollars (COT) [dailyfx])

    ======================
    "P&F NZDCAD240 Box Size 32X3 or(1.3%) HI/LO
    Data 0.789 - 0.6863 ~ 4 Month ~ 119.17 Day
    Database 512 records 0.78031 (Last Close)
    2009-06-02 00~00
    2009-09-29 04~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group"

    0.7904|~32|||________________________________________|-0.18%|15.17%
    0.7872|~64|||____________________________________x___|0.23%|14.7%
    0.7840|~96|||____________________________________x_o_|0.63%|14.24%
    0.7808|~128||____________________________________x_o_|1.04%|13.77%
    0.7776|~16O||____________________________________x_o_|1.44%|13.3%
    0.7744|~192||____________________________________x___|1.85%|12.84%
    0.7712|~224||____________________________________x___|2.26%|12.37%
    0.7680|~256||____________________________________x___|2.66%|11.9%
    0.7648|~288||____________________________________x___|3.07%|11.44%
    0.7616|~32O||____________________________________x___|3.47%|10.97%
    0.7584|~352||____________________________________x___|3.88%|10.51%
    0.7552|~384||________________x___________________x___|4.28%|10.04%
    0.7520|~416||________________x_o_____________x___x___|4.69%|9.57%
    0.7488|~448||________________x_o_____________x_o_x___|5.1%|9.11%
    0.7456|~48O||________________x_o_________x___x_o_x___|5.5%|8.64%
    0.7424|~512||________________x_o_________x_o_x_o_____|5.91%|8.17%
    0.7392|~544||________________x_o_x_______x_o_x_______|6.31%|7.71%
    0.7360|~576||________________x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_______|6.72%|7.24%
    0.7328|~6O8||________________x_o_x_o_____x_o_________|7.12%|6.78%
    0.7296|~64O||________________x_o_x_o_____x___________|7.53%|6.31%
    0.7264|~672||________________x_o___o_x___x___________|7.93%|5.84%
    0.7232|~7O4||________________x_____o_x_o_x___________|8.34%|5.38%
    0.7200|~736||____________x___x_____o_x_o_x___________|8.75%|4.91%
    0.7168|~768||____________x_o_x_____o___o_x___________|9.15%|4.44%
    0.7136|~8OO||____________x_o_x_________o_x___________|9.56%|3.98%
    0.7104|~832||x___________x_o___________o_x___________|9.96%|3.51%
    0.7072|~864||__o_________x_____________o_____________|10.37%|3.05%
    0.7040|~896||__o_x___x___x___________________________|10.77%|2.58%
    0.7008|~928||__o_x_o_x_o_x___________________________|11.18%|2.11%
    0.6976|~96O||__o_x_o_x_o_x___________________________|11.58%|1.65%
    0.6944|~992||__o___o___o_x___________________________|11.99%|1.18%
    0.6912|~1O24|__________o_x___________________________|12.4%|0.71%
    0.6880|~1O56|__________o_____________________________|12.8%|0.25%
    0.6848|~1O88|________________________________________|13.21%|-0.22%
    Column|~112O|1_5_3_3_3_5_103_149_4_7_3_6_124_6_3_143_|
    Count
     
  5. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    Risk appetite has been the primary fundamental instrument of NZDUSD price action since the March reversal. A significant yield differential between the kiwi and US dollars keeps the pair set on track with broader sentiment trends. However, speculation also plays a significant part in holding this pair up. There has been significant premium afforded to US rates being held near zero and the RBNZ turning to hikes soon. Near term, our concern lies with NFPs

    "P&F NZDUSD5 Box Size 12X3 or(0.5%) HI/LO
    Data 0.7452 - 0.7078 ~ 0 Month ~ 7.26 Day
    Database 1503 records 0.73312 (Last Close)
    2009-10-02 14~05
    2009-10-09 20~15
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group"

    0.7452|~12|||________________________________|0%|5.28%
    0.7440|~24|||________________________x_o_____|0.16%|5.11%
    0.7428|~36|||________________________x_o_____|0.32%|4.94%
    0.7416|~48|||____________________x___x_o_____|0.48%|4.78%
    0.7404|~6O|||____________________x_o_x_o_x___|0.64%|4.61%
    0.7392|~72|||________________x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.81%|4.44%
    0.7380|~84|||________________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|0.97%|4.27%
    0.7368|~96|||____________x___x_o_x_o___o_x_o_|1.13%|4.1%
    0.7356|~1O8||____________x_o_x_o_x_____o___o_|1.29%|3.93%
    0.7344|~12O||____________x_o_x_o_x_________o_|1.45%|3.76%
    0.7332|~132||____________x_o_x_o_x_________o_|1.61%|3.59%
    0.7320|~144||____________x_o_x_o___________o_|1.77%|3.42%
    0.7308|~156||____________x_o_______________o_|1.93%|3.25%
    0.7296|~168||____________x___________________|2.09%|3.08%
    0.7284|~18O||____________x___________________|2.25%|2.91%
    0.7272|~192||____________x___________________|2.42%|2.74%
    0.7260|~2O4||____________x___________________|2.58%|2.57%
    0.7248|~216||____________x___________________|2.74%|2.4%
    0.7236|~228||____________x___________________|2.9%|2.23%
    0.7224|~24O||____________x___________________|3.06%|2.06%
    0.7212|~252||________x___x___________________|3.22%|1.89%
    0.7200|~264||____x___x_o_x___________________|3.38%|1.72%
    0.7188|~276||____x_o_x_o_x___________________|3.54%|1.55%
    0.7176|~288||____x_o_x_o_____________________|3.7%|1.38%
    0.7164|~3OO||____x_o_x_______________________|3.86%|1.22%
    0.7152|~312||____x_o_x_______________________|4.03%|1.05%
    0.7140|~324||____x_o_________________________|4.19%|0.88%
    0.7128|~336||__o_x___________________________|4.35%|0.71%
    0.7116|~348||__o_x___________________________|4.51%|0.54%
    0.7104|~36O||__o_x___________________________|4.67%|0.37%
    0.7092|~372||__o_x___________________________|4.83%|0.2%
    0.7080|~384||__o_____________________________|4.99%|0.03%
    0.7068|~396||________________________________|5.15%|-0.14%
    Column|~4O8||0_5_105_6_3_165_7_6_8_4_6_8_4_8_|
    Count


    [​IMG]
     
  6. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    NZD/USD rose on renewed risk appetite as merger and acquisition news prompted demand for higher yielding assets.

    The pair ranges between 0.7300 and 0.7100, channel established in the end of September through the first days in October. Bias is mixed inside the channel ahead of key reports which include key policy meetings and labor reports.

    Above the current 0.7268 level, the pair finds initial resistance at 0.7276, followed by 0.7236 and 0.7350.

    Below current levels, 0.7258, NZD/USD will encounter initial support at 0.7176, followed by 0.7100 and 0.7032.

    "P&F NZDUSD1 Box Size 4X4 or(0.22%) HI/LO
    Data 0.7275 - 0.7175 ~ 0 Month ~ 1.45 Day
    Database 2060 records 0.72404 (Last Close)
    2009-11-05 11~12
    2009-11-06 21~55
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group"

    0.7276|~4||||__________________________|-0.01%|1.41%
    0.7272|~8||||____________X_____________|0.04%|1.35%
    0.7268|~12|||____________XoX_______X___|0.1%|1.3%
    0.7264|~16|||____________XoXo______Xo__|0.15%|1.24%
    0.7260|~2O|||____________XoXo______XoX_|0.21%|1.18%
    0.7256|~24|||____________XoXo______XoXo|0.26%|1.13%
    0.7252|~28|||____________X__o______XoXo|0.32%|1.07%
    0.7248|~32|||____________X__o______XoXo|0.37%|1.02%
    0.7244|~36|||____________X__oX_____XoXo|0.43%|0.96%
    0.7240|~4O|||====X=======X==oXo====XoXo|0.48%|0.91%
    0.7236|~44|||____Xo______X__oXo____XoXo|0.54%|0.85%
    0.7232|~48|||__X_Xo______X__oXo____Xo__|0.59%|0.79%
    0.7228|~52|||__XoXo______X__oXo__X_X___|0.65%|0.74%
    0.7224|~56|||__XoXo______X__o_oX_XoX___|0.7%|0.68%
    0.7220|~6O|||__XoXoX_X_X_X____oXoXoX___|0.76%|0.63%
    0.7216|~64|||__XoXoXoXoXoX____oXoXoX___|0.81%|0.57%
    0.7212|~68|||__Xo_oXoXoXoX____oXoXoX___|0.87%|0.52%
    0.7208|~72|||__X__oXoXoXoX____o_oXoX___|0.92%|0.46%
    0.7204|~76|||__X__o_oXoXoX______oXoX___|0.98%|0.4%
    0.7200|~8O|||__X____o_oXoX______oXo____|1.03%|0.35%
    0.7196|~84|||X_X______oXo_______o______|1.09%|0.29%
    0.7192|~88|||XoX______oX_______________|1.14%|0.24%
    0.7188|~92|||XoX______oX_______________|1.2%|0.18%
    0.7184|~96|||XoX______o________________|1.25%|0.13%
    0.7180|~1OO||_oX_______________________|1.31%|0.07%
    0.7176|~1O4||_o________________________|1.36%|0.01%
    0.7172|~1O8||__________________________|1.42%|-0.04%
    Column|~112||45157945599614415947871976|
    Count|~116|||__4_________9__1______7___|


    [​IMG]

    Excel_091106_nzdusd_mix.xls
     
  7. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    [​IMG]

    Not being able to maintain a bid-tone approaching .7400 - NZD is weakening again. Important support is formed by the .7200 handle but I wouldn't bet too much on how strong it will be in case of a re-test. It is worth watching it, though, as a break down may provide a good selling point - objectives into the .6900-.7000 zone.[dailyfx]
    USD/CAD's strong rebound form 1.0448 and the subsequent break of 1.0730 resistance reaffirm the bullish case rise from 1.0205 is still in progress. At this point, intraday bias is on the upside for 1.0851 resistance first. Break will confirm rally resumption from 1.0205 and should target 1.1101 resistance next. On the downside, below 1.0638 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first.[actionforex]

    "P&F NZDCAD1440 Box Size 75X5 or(5.13%) HI/LO
    Data 0.8481 - 0.6145 ~ 29 Month ~ 891 Day
    Database 634 records 0.75265 (Last Close)
    2007-06-20 00~00
    2009-11-27 00~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    0.8475|~75|||x___________________________________|0.07%|37.92%
    0.8400|~15O||x_o_________________________________|0.96%|36.7%
    0.8325|~225||x_o_________________________________|1.84%|35.48%
    0.8250|~3OO||x_o_________________________________|2.72%|34.26%
    0.8175|~375||__o_____x___________________________|3.61%|33.03%
    0.8100|~45O||__o_____x_o_________________________|4.49%|31.81%
    0.8025|~525||__o_____x_o_________________________|5.38%|30.59%
    0.7950|~6OO||__o_____x_o_____________________x___|6.26%|29.37%
    0.7875|~675||__o_____x_o_____________________x_o_|7.15%|28.15%
    0.7800|~75O||__o_____x_o_____________________x_o_|8.03%|26.93%
    0.7725|~825||__o_____x_o_____________________x_o_|8.91%|25.71%
    0.7650|~9OO||__o_____x_o_____________________x_o_|9.8%|24.49%
    0.7575|~975||__o_x___x_o_____________________x_o_|10.68%|23.27%
    0.7500|~1O5O|__o_x_o_x_o_x_______________x___x_o_|11.57%|22.05%
    0.7425|~1125|__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_x___|12.45%|20.83%
    0.7350|~12OO|__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___________x_o_x___|13.34%|19.61%
    0.7275|~1275|__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x___x_o_x___|14.22%|18.39%
    0.7200|~135O|__o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x___|15.1%|17.17%
    0.7125|~1425|______o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|15.99%|15.95%
    0.7050|~15OO|__________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|16.87%|14.73%
    0.6975|~1575|__________o_x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_______|17.76%|13.51%
    0.6900|~165O|__________o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_______|18.64%|12.29%
    0.6825|~1725|__________o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_______|19.53%|11.07%
    0.6750|~18OO|__________o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_________|20.41%|9.85%
    0.6675|~1875|__________o_x_____o_x_o_x___________|21.29%|8.62%
    0.6600|~195O|__________o_x_____o___o_x___________|22.18%|7.4%
    0.6525|~2O25|__________o_x_________o_x___________|23.06%|6.18%
    0.6450|~21OO|__________o___________o_x___________|23.95%|4.96%
    0.6375|~2175|______________________o_x___________|24.83%|3.74%
    0.6300|~225O|______________________o_x___________|25.72%|2.52%
    0.6225|~2325|______________________o_x___________|26.6%|1.3%
    0.6150|~24OO|______________________o_____________|27.48%|0.08%
    0.6075|~2475|____________________________________|28.37%|-1.14%
    Column|~255O|4_175_6_1423147_5_108_14157_106_126_|
    Count


    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group-20091127_nzdcadMix.xls
     
  8. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    NZDUSD review
    61.8% retracement ratio of the .7150-.6805 downward move currently limits the upside at .7020 but the kiwi dollar maintains its bid tone against the dollar - thus intra-day studies being bullish while writing this. Extended gains may open .7150 which is a more notable upside barrier. Above the .7100 mark, short-term sentiment turns positive. On the south side - breaching below intra-day support at .6900/30 would cancel the bullish structure, resuming downtrend. Current quote is .6991 @07:00 GMT[Written by Innerfx]

    Support: .6950, .6900/30, .6850/60, .6800 and .6750
    Resistance: .7000/20, .7100 and .7150
    Market sentiment: long term - bullish, medium term - slightly bearish, short term - bearish, intra-day - bullish

    "P&F NZDUSD1440 Box Size 121X4 or(7.62%) HI/LO
    Data 0.8214 - 0.4485 ~ 92 Month ~ 2809 Day
    Database 2000 records 0.69722 (Last Close)
    2002-06-05 00~00
    2010-02-12 00~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    0.8228|~121||__________________________________|-0.17%|83.46%
    0.8107|~242||__________x___x_o_________________|1.3%|80.76%
    0.7986|~363||__________x_o_x_o_________________|2.78%|78.06%
    0.7865|~484||__________x_o_x_o_________________|4.25%|75.36%
    0.7744|~6O5||__________x_o_x_o_________________|5.72%|72.66%
    0.7623|~726||__________x_o_x_o_____________x___|7.2%|69.97%
    0.7502|~847||__________x_o_x_o_____________x_o_|8.67%|67.27%
    0.7381|~968||______x___x_o_x_o_____________x_o_|10.14%|64.57%
    0.7260|~1O89|______x_o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_|11.61%|61.87%
    0.7139|~121O|______x_o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_|13.09%|59.18%
    0.7018|~1331|==x===x=o=x=o=x=o=============x=o=|14.56%|56.48%
    0.6897|~1452|__x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o_|16.03%|53.78%
    0.6776|~1573|__x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________x___|17.51%|51.08%
    0.6655|~1694|__x_o_x_o_x_o___o_____________x___|18.98%|48.38%
    0.6534|~1815|__x_o_x_o_x_____o_____________x___|20.45%|45.69%
    0.6413|~1936|__x_o_x_o_x_____o_____________x___|21.93%|42.99%
    0.6292|~2O57|__x_o_x_o_x_____o_x___________x___|23.4%|40.29%
    0.6171|~2178|__x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_________x___|24.87%|37.59%
    0.6050|~2299|__x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_o_x___x___x___|26.35%|34.89%
    0.5929|~242O|__x_o___o_______o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|27.82%|32.2%
    0.5808|~2541|__x_____________o___o_x_o_x_o_x___|29.29%|29.5%
    0.5687|~2662|__x_________________o_x_o_x_o_x___|30.76%|26.8%
    0.5566|~2783|__x_________________o_x_o_x_o_x___|32.24%|24.1%
    0.5445|~29O4|__x_________________o___o_x_o_x___|33.71%|21.4%
    0.5324|~3O25|__x_____________________o_x_o_x___|35.18%|18.71%
    0.5203|~3146|__x_____________________o___o_x___|36.66%|16.01%
    0.5082|~3267|__x_________________________o_x___|38.13%|13.31%
    0.4961|~3388|o_x_________________________o_____|39.6%|10.61%
    0.4840|~35O9|o_x_______________________________|41.08%|7.92%
    0.4719|~363O|o_x_______________________________|42.55%|5.22%
    0.4598|~3751|o_________________________________|44.02%|2.52%
    0.4477|~3872|__________________________________|45.5%|-0.18%
    Column|~3993|4_209_1212181212204_7_5_7_7_9_226_|
    Count


    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  9. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    On the daily chart, although the New Zealand dollar retreated from 0.7180 to 0.6964, as price has rebounded from there, suggesting as long as this support holds, consolidation with mild upside bias remains and break of said resistance would bring stronger rebound to indicated upside target at 0.7221 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7635 to 0.6807) and possibly towards 0.7319 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) but reckon key resistance at 0.7445 would continue to hold.

    "P&F NZDUSD1440 Box Size 1250X3 or(5.91%) HI/LO
    Data 0.8214 - 0.4485 ~ 93 Month ~ 2809 Day
    Database 2000 records 0.70291 (Last Close)
    2002-07-30 00~00
    2010-04-08 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    0.8125|~125||___________________X___________________|1.08%|81.16%
    0.8000|~25O||_________Xo________Xo__________________|2.61%|78.37%
    0.7875|~375||_________Xo____X_X_Xo__________________|4.13%|75.59%
    0.7750|~5OO||_________Xo__X_XoXoXo__________________|5.65%|72.8%
    0.7625|~625||_________Xo__XoXoXoXo____________X_____|7.17%|70.01%
    0.7500|~75O||_________Xo__XoXo_o_o____________XoX___|8.69%|67.22%
    0.7375|~875||___X_____Xo__Xo_____o____________XoXoX_|10.21%|64.44%
    0.7250|~1OOO|___Xo____XoX_X______o____________XoXoXo|11.74%|61.65%
    0.7125|~1125|___XoX___XoXoX______o____________Xo_oXo|13.26%|58.86%
    0.7000|~125O|_X_XoXo__XoXoX______o____________X__o_o|14.78%|56.08%
    0.6875|~1375|_XoXoXo__XoXo_______oX___________X____o|16.3%|53.29%
    0.6750|~15OO|_XoXo_o__Xo_________oXo__________X_____|17.82%|50.5%
    0.6625|~1625|_XoX__o__X__________oXo__________X_____|19.35%|47.71%
    0.6500|~175O|_XoX__o__X__________o_o__________X_____|20.87%|44.93%
    0.6375|~1875|_XoX__oX_X____________o__________X_____|22.39%|42.14%
    0.6250|~2OOO|_XoX__oXoX____________oX_________X_____|23.91%|39.35%
    0.6125|~2125|_XoX__oXoX____________oXoX_______X_____|25.43%|36.57%
    0.6000|~225O|_Xo___o_o_____________oXoXoX_____X_____|26.95%|33.78%
    0.5875|~2375|_X____________________o_oXoXo__X_X_____|28.48%|30.99%
    0.5750|~25OO|_X______________________oXoXo__XoX_____|30%|28.21%
    0.5625|~2625|_X______________________oXoXo__XoX_____|31.52%|25.42%
    0.5500|~275O|_X______________________oXoXo__Xo______|33.04%|22.63%
    0.5375|~2875|_X______________________o_oXoX_X_______|34.56%|19.84%
    0.5250|~3OOO|_X________________________o_oXoX_______|36.08%|17.06%
    0.5125|~3125|_X__________________________oXoX_______|37.61%|14.27%
    0.5000|~325O|_X__________________________o_o________|39.13%|11.48%
    0.4875|~3375|_X_____________________________________|40.65%|8.7%
    0.4750|~35OO|_X_____________________________________|42.17%|5.91%
    0.4625|~3625|oX_____________________________________|43.69%|3.12%
    0.4500|~375O|o______________________________________|45.22%|0.33%
    Column|||||||228153933114373433351383767683373143434|
    Count||||||||_O_1_____61_________3____________7_____|


    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  10. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    After crossing the bearish trend line inside the upward trend channel, the NZD/USD pulled back from its horizontal resistance line around 0.7310. It was the markets' fifth touch with the lower line of the channel before it recovered back to its current price. If the market breaks the horizontal resistance around 0.7310, we might see further gains. Otherwise, it might continue its bullish zigzag phase inside the bullish channel.

    "P&F NZDUSD1440 Box Size 125X3 or(5.83%) HI/LO
    Data 0.8214 - 0.4644 ~ 93 Month ~ 2811 Day
    Database 2000 records 0.71823 (Last Close)
    2002-08-30 00~00
    2010-05-11 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  11. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    The New Zealand Dollar pared the decline from June following a shift in market sentiment, and the high-yielding currency may continue to trend higher over the following week as investors raise their appetite for risk.

    "P&F NZDUSD10080 Box Size 150X3 or(7.43%) HI/LO
    Data 0.8214 - 0.39 ~ 246 Month ~ 7483 Day
    Database 1070 records 0.71037 (Last Close)
    1990-01-07 00~00
    2010-07-04 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    0.8250|~15O||______________________________________+_________________________|-0.44%|111.54%
    0.8100|~3OO||__________________________________x___x_+_______________________|1.39%|107.69%
    0.7950|~45O||__________________________________x_o_x_o_+_____________________|3.21%|103.85%
    0.7800|~6OO||__________________________________x_o_x_o___+___________________|5.04%|100%
    0.7650|~75O||__________________________________x_o_x_o_____+___________+_____|6.87%|96.15%
    0.7500|~9OO||__________________________________x_o_x_o_______+_________x_+___|8.69%|92.31%
    0.7350|~1O5O|__________________________x_______x_o_x_o_________+_______x_o_+_|10.52%|88.46%
    0.7200|~12OO|______+___________________x_o_____x_o_x_o___________+_____x_o___|12.34%|84.62%
    0.7050|~135O|______x_+_____________x___x_o_____x_o_x_o_____________+___x_o_x_|14.17%|80.77%
    0.6900|~15OO|______x_o_+___________x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_____________+_x_o_x_|16%|76.92%
    0.6750|~165O|______x_o___+_________x_o_x_o_____x_o___o_x_o_____________x_o_x_|17.82%|73.08%
    0.6600|~18OO|______x_o_____+_______x_o_x_o_____x_____o_x_o_____________x_o___|19.65%|69.23%
    0.6450|~195O|______x_o_______+_____x_o_x_o_x___x_____o___o_____________x_____|21.48%|65.38%
    0.6300|~21OO|__x___x_o_________+___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___________x_____|23.3%|61.54%
    0.6150|~225O|__x_o_x_o___________+_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_________x_____|25.13%|57.69%
    0.6000|~24OO|o_x_o_x_o_____________x_o___o___o___________o_x_o_x___x___x_____|26.95%|53.85%
    0.5850|~255O|o_x_o_x_o_____________x___________________+_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_____|28.78%|50%
    0.5700|~27OO|o___o_x_o_____________x_________________+_______o_x_o_x_o_x_____|30.61%|46.15%
    0.5550|~285O|____o_x_o_x___________x_______________+_________o_x_o_x_o_x_____|32.43%|42.31%
    0.5400|~3OOO|____o_x_o_x_o_________x_____________+___________o___o_x_o_x_____|34.26%|38.46%
    0.5250|~315O|____o_x_o_x_o_________x___________+_________________o___o_x___+_|36.08%|34.62%
    0.5100|~33OO|____o___o_x_o_________x_________+_______________________o_x_+___|37.91%|30.77%
    0.4950|~345O|________o_x_o_____x___x_______+_________________________o_+_____|39.74%|26.92%
    0.4800|~36OO|________o___o_____x_o_x_____+___________________________+_______|41.56%|23.08%
    0.4650|~375O|____________o_____x_o_x___+_____________________________________|43.39%|19.23%
    0.4500|~39OO|____________o_x___x_o___+_______________________________________|45.22%|15.38%
    0.4350|~4O5O|____________o_x_o_x___+_________________________________________|47.04%|11.54%
    0.4200|~42OO|____________o_x_o_x_+___________________________________________|48.87%|7.69%
    0.4050|~435O|____________o___o_+_____________________________________________|50.69%|3.85%
    0.3900|~45OO|________________+_______________________________________________|52.52%|0%
    Column|||||||3_4_8_1_1_5_1_3_3_6_3_1_7_9_9_3_3_1_9_9_1_3_7_3_6_4_5_5_7_1_6_3_|
    Count||||||||______3_5___O_________7___________4_____1_________________7_____|


    [​IMG]

    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
  12. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
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    NzdCad formed a triple top.
    Trade Idea: NZD / CAD - Sell at 0.7480; Target: 0.7080; Stop: 0.7560.
    In the case of failures.
    Trade Idea: NZD / CAD - Sell at 0.7600; Target: 0.7080; Stop: 0.7680.

    "P&F NZDCAD15 Box Size 10X3 or(0.4%) HI/LO
    Data 0.7603 - 0.7416 ~ 0 Month ~ 15.01 Day
    Database 1050 records 0.74688 (Last Close)
    2010-07-15 22~30
    2010-07-30 22~45 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    0.7600|~1O|||__________________X+____________|0.04%|2.48%
    0.7590|~2O|||__________________Xo+___________|0.17%|2.35%
    0.7580|~3O|||__________________Xo_+__________|0.3%|2.21%
    0.7570|~4O|||________________X_XoX_+_________|0.43%|2.08%
    0.7560|~5O|||_o____________X_XoXoXoX+________|0.57%|1.94%
    0.7550|~6O|||_o____________XoXoXoXoXo+_______|0.7%|1.81%
    0.7540|~7O|||_o__________X_XoXoXo_oXo_+______|0.83%|1.67%
    0.7530|~8O|||_o__________XoXoXo__+oXo__+_____|0.96%|1.54%
    0.7520|~9O|||_o+_________XoXo___+_oXo___+____|1.09%|1.4%
    0.7510|~1OO||_oX+________Xo____+__oXoX_X_+___|1.22%|1.27%
    0.7500|~11O||_oXo+___X___X____+___o_oXoXo_+__|1.35%|1.13%
    0.7490|~12O||_oXo_+__Xo__X___+______oXoXoX_X_|1.49%|1%
    0.7480|~13O||_oXoX_+_XoX_X__+_______o_o_oXoXo|1.62%|0.86%
    0.7470|~14O||_oXoXo_+XoXoX_+____________oXoXo|1.75%|0.73%
    0.7460|~15O||_o_oXoX_XoXoX+_____________oXoXo|1.88%|0.59%
    0.7450|~16O||___oXoXoXoXo+______________o_oXo|2.01%|0.46%
    0.7440|~17O||___oXoXoXoX+_________________o+_|2.14%|0.32%
    0.7430|~18O||___o_oXo_o+__________________+__|2.28%|0.19%
    0.7420|~19O||_____o___+______________________|2.41%|0.05%
    0.7410|~2OO||________________________________|2.54%|-0.08%
    Column|~21O||O1585643775393545476376833364554|
    Count|~22O|||_1______________________________|


    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
  13. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

    Joined:
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    Trade Idea: Nzd/Usd - Buy Limit at ~0.72.00; Target: ~0.76.00 ; Stop: ~0.7120.
    =============
    I am neutral on NZD/USD, but wait for upward movement.
    The weak fundamentals of New Zealand are offset by the general greenback sell off. This trend is likely to continue in the upcoming week, with more range trading expected.

    "P&F NZDUSD5 Box Size 10X3 or(0.41%) HI/LO
    Data 0.7415 - 0.7214 ~ 0.38 Month ~ 11.06 Day
    Database 2010 records 0.73369 (Last Close)
    2010-09-16 06~15
    2010-09-27 07~45 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    0.7420|~1O|||________________________________+_____________|-0.07%|2.86%
    0.7410|~2O|||________________________________x_+___________|0.07%|2.72%
    0.7400|~3O|||____________________________x___x_o_+_________|0.2%|2.58%
    0.7390|~4O|||____________________________x_o_x_o_x_+_______|0.34%|2.44%
    0.7380|~5O|||________________________x___x_o_x_o_x_o_+_____|0.47%|2.3%
    0.7370|~6O|||________________________x_o_x_o___o_x_o___+___|0.61%|2.16%
    0.7360|~7O|||________________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_____x_|0.74%|2.02%
    0.7350|~8O|||____________________x___x_o_______o___o_____x_|0.88%|1.89%
    0.7340|~9O|||____________________x_o_x___________+_o_____x_|1.01%|1.75%
    0.7330|~1OO||________x___________x_o_x_________+___o_x___x_|1.15%|1.61%
    0.7320|~11O||________x_o_________x_o_________+_____o_x_o_x_|1.28%|1.47%
    0.7310|~12O||________x_o_____x___x_________+_______o_x_o_x_|1.42%|1.33%
    0.7300|~13O||________x_o_x___x_o_x_______+_________o_x_o_x_|1.55%|1.19%
    0.7290|~14O||________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____+___________o_x_o_x_|1.69%|1.05%
    0.7280|~15O||________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___+_____________o_x_o___|1.82%|0.91%
    0.7270|~16O||x_______x_o_x_o___o_x_+_______________o_+_____|1.96%|0.78%
    0.7260|~17O||x_o_____x_o_x___+_o_+_________________+_______|2.09%|0.64%
    0.7250|~18O||x_o_x___x_o___+___+___________________________|2.23%|0.5%
    0.7240|~19O||x_o_x_o_x___+_________________________________|2.36%|0.36%
    0.7230|~2OO||__o_x_o_x_+___________________________________|2.49%|0.22%
    0.7220|~21O||__o___o_+_____________________________________|2.63%|0.08%
    0.7210|~22O||______+_______________________________________|2.76%|-0.06%
    Column|||||||4_5_3_3_1_8_5_3_4_5_9_3_6_3_5_3_4_6_4_1_6_5_8_|
    Count||||||||________1_____________________________2_______|


    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
  14. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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