The single currency traders enjoyed a +230 point movement after reaching recent low at 1.2250 during early trade last week versus the greenback. The 200 period simple moving average on H4 chart proved yet again to be a good resistance price. As European banks took 129 billion of cheap loans, figure released last Thursday during the TLTRO auction, the result indicates that the Eurozone needs a QE program to beat the deflationary pressure. What does it mean? Well, market participants can simply look into the recent history and see that QE programs tend to decrease value of country’s currency. In simple words, a long term euro-bearish factor. What to expect this week? As market participants look forward to Wednesday’s FED interest rate decision and policy statement, the single currency sentiment remains in hands of bears. As Eurozone’s PMI (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) forecasted numbers remain low, it doesn’t look as the sellers will let euro break and stabilize above 1.25 versus the dollar. Levels to watch: 1.2360, 1.2250 as valid breakouts will open the path to 1.20 on the downside. And, on the upside a break of 1.25 may see the market move towards 1.2750.