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Technical News | GDMFX Brokerage | Daily

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by GDMFX, Jun 23, 2014.

  1. GDMFX

    GDMFX Content Contributor

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    FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN MANUFACTURING AND US HOUSE-MARKET DATA AHEAD


    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The main trend Friday was bearish, partially generated by a light overbought state of the market. There were no important economic releases and price action was relatively smooth.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Price failed to finish the trading day below 1.3585 and the bulls have been showing some pressure lately, stopping the bearish momentum at 1.3520. However, neither bulls nor bears are in clear control and today’s direction will be determined by price behavior around the current level of interest (1.3585). A bearish break will make 1.3520 the next target while a bounce higher will most likely take the pair back into 1.3640 resistance zone.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 7:00 am GMT the French Manufacturing PMI is announced but no change is expected from the previous value of 49.6; half an hour later the German Manufacturing PMI is released and expected to change from 52.3 to 52.7. Both are leading indicators of economic health based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Euro.

    The United States will release at 2:00 pm GMT the Existing Home Sales numbers which are expected to increase from 4.65M to 4.74M. The indicator has a slightly greater importance than the New Home Sales (will be released a day after) because existing homes represent the majority of total sales. Higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD
    Friday the pair retraced lower, a normal behavior, considering the extended move upwards and the overbought condition signaled by the Relative Strength Index; however, the bears didn’t manage to break important levels.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The move south seen Friday is considered just a retracement, not a reversal; a good place for price to start moving upwards again is 1.6996 which was previous resistance and now may become support. A bearish break of the mentioned level would indicate that high prices become harder and harder for bulls to sustain and would weaken the current uptrend, making 1.6920 the next medium-term destination. Resistance now sits at 1.7063.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom doesn’t release any major economic indicators today and price action will be mostly influenced by the technical aspect and by the US data mentioned above.


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  2. GDMFX

    GDMFX Content Contributor

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    FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION AFFECTED BY PURCHASING MANAGERS’ INDEXES



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The Euro climbed yesterday, moving towards 1.3150 but price action lacked momentum as no major economic news came out and the market suffered from low volatility due to the fact that US banks were closed.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The bears slowed down their momentum but the downtrend is intact and a touch of 1.3150 is expected before we can see more downside movement. If 1.3150 is surpassed, the next resistance is located at 1.3200 but we might experience slow and ranging movement until the ECB meets this week. The first level of interest to the south is 1.3100.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The main event of the day will be the release of the American Manufacturing PMI scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. This is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector who are asked to rate economic and business conditions; the anticipated value is 57.0 and higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback as they suggest that optimism among purchasing managers is increasing.


    GBP/USD
    The Pound strengthened earlier in the day but the disappointing value of the British Manufacturing PMI stopped further bullish advances and erased some of the Pound’s gains.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The current bullish move can be considered just a retracement in a rather strong downtrend so we expect downside movement and another close encounter with 1.6550 support. The Relative Strength Index is approaching the overbought level for the first time in a long while and bearish divergence is present, a fact which favors another move south. If the pair continues upwards, it will encounter the first resistance at 1.6700.

    Fundamental Outlook
    AT 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is released and anticipated to drop from last month’s 62.4 to 61.5. Since this is a measure of optimism among purchasing managers from the construction sector, it acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher than anticipated numbers are beneficial for the Pound. As always, the US events will directly affect the pair as well.
     
  3. GDMFX

    GDMFX Content Contributor

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    FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY TONING DOWN AFTER YESTERDAY’S STORM



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: Yesterday’s price action offered us a huge surprise in the form of a 250 pips rise followed by a massive drop of more than 120 pips. The disappointing numbers posted by the US Retail Sales triggered US Dollar weakness and the initial climb, while the move south that followed is mainly attributed to technical reasons.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Under normal circumstances the massive climb could bring in more buyers but the long wick of the candle signifies rejection and makes the picture unclear. For the moment we recommend caution as the pair’s next direction is uncertain. Yesterday’s high at 1.2886 will act as the first resistance while the level at 1.2750 could provide some support but can also turn into resistance if price moves below it. In this latter case, 1.2660 will become first support.

    Fundamental Outlook
    At 2:00 pm GMT the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is released and expected to decrease from last month’s 22.5 to 19.9. This is a leading indicator of economic health based on the opinions of about 250 manufacturers from the Philadelphia district and higher than expected numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD
    British unemployment data was worse than anticipated but the main event of the day was without a doubt the US Retail Sales release which triggered tremendous volatility.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair touched 1.6060 resistance and immediately dropped, creating a major whipsaw. For the time being, the downtrend is still in place as we don’t have a higher high but a lower low was printed. For today we expect the pair to remain between 1.6060 resistance and 1.5900 support, but given the latest strong movement, a breakout is possible as well.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for the day so focus will be shifted towards the United States and the technical aspect.
     
  4. GDMFX

    GDMFX Content Contributor

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    FOREX NEWS: A BUSY DAY AHEAD: AMERICAN GDP AND BRITISH INFLATION HEARINGS IN THE FOCUS



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The Euro climbed against the American Dollar yesterday as price direction was affected by a better than expected value of the German IFO Business Climate survey. Technical factors like the oversold condition of the pair also played an important role for the pair’s movement.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Although yesterday the pair climbed, the bears still have enough underlying strength to bring price down for another test of the support level at 1.2360. If the pair continues upwards, it will encounter resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a bullish break will open the door for a touch of 1.2500 resistance. The fundamental aspect will have an important influence on today’s price action.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The first noteworthy event of the day is the release of the American Preliminary Gross Domestic Product scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. A higher value than the expected 3.3% would generate US Dollar strength although this version of the GDP is less important than the Advance version.

    The US Consumer Confidence is released at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to increase from the previous value of 94.5 to 95.9. A consumer that is confident in the economic situation of the country is likely to spend more and this helps the economy, thus a higher than anticipated value will add fuel to the US Dollar, driving the pair lower.


    GBP/USD
    The Pound also climbed yesterday although no major indicators were released. Overall we had a pretty slow day, with price action mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair is moving mostly sideways lately and neither bulls nor bears are in clear control; price is sitting above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a clear slope of the line is not present, indicating the pair is in a ranging period. Until either 1.5750 resistance or 1.5590 support is broken, the ranging period is not over and direction changes can occur, especially if the Relative Strength Index will reach an extreme condition.

    Fundamental Outlook
    BOE Governor Mark Carney and other MPC members will testify on inflation today at 10:00 am GMT before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hearings last for a few hours and during this time volatility and sharp moves may be experienced. Before the hearings start, at 9:30 am GMT the British Bankers’ Association will release the Mortgage Approval numbers; the forecast is 38.5K and a higher value is likely to strengthen the Pound but usually this indicator tends to have a mild impact on the market.
     
  5. GDMFX

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    FOREX NEWS: THE DOWNTREND WAVERS. RESISTANCE THREATENED



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The American Gross Domestic Product posted a better than expected reading but the pair failed to break 1.2400 and rebounded higher after a brief moment of bearishness.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Yesterday’s rise took price in close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart but resistance has not been broken so the picture is not strongly bullish for the moment. On the other hand, support pushed price higher and this makes 1.2500 the first target. However, if 1.2500 is touched and the Relative Strength Index is overbought at the time, we anticipate a bounce lower.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The US Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to change -0.4% while last month’s value was -1.1%. The indicator tracks changes in the value of goods with a life expectancy of at least three years and higher values usually strengthen the greenback.

    The US New Home Sales numbers come out at 3:00 pm GMT with an anticipated value of 471K, slightly better than last month’s 467K. Same as for the other indicator, a higher value suggests economic expansion and usually strengthens the US Dollar.


    GBP/USD
    The Pound had a good day against the US Dollar despite the value of the American GDP which was better than anticipated. The Inflation Report hearings created mixed market reaction which did not result in strong movement.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was clearly broken yesterday and now will probably act as support. The immediate target is located at 1.5750 but the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory and we expect a bounce lower if the level mentioned will be touched. If 1.5750 will be broken we expect further upside movement after a test from above.

    Fundamental Outlook
    Great Britain’s Second Estimate GDP is released at 9:30 GMT and being the main gauge of economic performance, better values than the expected 0.7% will most likely generate Pound strength. As always, the US events will have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.
     
  6. GDMFX

    GDMFX Content Contributor

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    FOREX NEWS: THANKSGIVING DAY GENERATES IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION​



    EUR/USD
    Forex News: The data released yesterday by the United States was disappointing and generated US Dollar weakness, thus the pair had a bullish day and price broke through short term resistance.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    Today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving Day and this will most likely trigger irregular movement and periods of alternating volume, especially during the American session. From a strictly technical point of view, we anticipate a re-test from above of the recently broken level at 1.2500; adding to this is the position of the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart, but if the bulls can maintain price above the mentioned level, we expect further upside movement.


    Fundamental Outlook
    Since today is Thanksgiving Day, The United States will not release any economic data. However, an important indicator will affect price action: the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index which is the main gauge of inflation for the German economy. The event is scheduled at 1:00 pm GMT and the CPI is expected to increase to 0.0% from the previous -0.3%, a fact which would be beneficial for the Euro.


    GBP/USD
    The British Gross Domestic Product met analysts forecast but worse than expected US economic data generated greenback weakness and allowed the pair to climb above resistance.

    [​IMG]

    Technical Outlook
    The pair is trading above 1.5750 which was previously resistance but the Relative Strength Index on an hourly chart is showing clear overbought signs. This makes us believe that price will have another encounter with 1.5750; a bounce higher would suggest that 1.5750 is now support and that we will see further bullish price action.

    Fundamental Outlook
    The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic indicators for today thus price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect but keep in mind that irregular movement can occur due to Thanksgiving Day.
     
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