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Technical Outlook for Majors 03/10/2014

Discussion in 'Major Currency Pairs' started by WindsorBrokers, Oct 3, 2014.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Content Contributor

    Feb 18, 2010
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    Near-term price action holds positive sentiment off fresh low at 1.2569, low of 30 Sep, ahead of today’s US NFP data. The first strong obstacle at 1.2700/10, stays intact for now and sustained break here is required to spark stronger recovery rally, as 4-hour structure is still weak and requires continuation of rally, supported by yesterday’s positive close, to improve. Above 1.2700/10, significant points lay at 1.2760/73, 26 Sep minor lower platform and Fibonacci 61.8% of the downleg from 1.2900 to 1.2569 ahead of 1.2800/20, round-figure / 22 Sep former lower base and breakpoint at 1.2900, 23 Sep lower top. The price tests initial support at 1.2850, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2569/1.2697 ascend / hourly 55 SMA, with deeper dips allowed towards 1.2618/13, Fibonacci 61.8% and yesterday’s higher lows. Break below here to signal an end of recovery phase and re-focus the downside, as overall picture remains negative and south-heading weekly indicators, confirm strong bears.
    Res: 1.2673; 1.2697; 1.2710; 1.2760
    Sup: 1.2633; 1.2618; 1.2600; 1.2582

    [​IMG]GBPUSD</p>The pair came under pressure after recovery rejection at 1.6250, where hourly double-top was left. Renewed weakness approaches 1.61 handle, looking for full retracement of 1.6050/1.6522 upleg, as 1.6050 marks the last obstacle towards short-term target at 1.6000, psychological support and 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Yesterday’s close in red supports the notion, with corrective rallies to be ideally capped at 1.62 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6248/1.6110 descend. Only lift above 1.6250 would neutralize immediate bears.
    Res: 1.6160; 1.6200; 1.6250; 1.6285
    Sup: 1.6123; 1.6110; 1.6050; 1.6000

    The pair trades in near-term corrective phase after cracking psychological 100 barrier, with corrective dips finding footstep at 108, psychological support / daily 20 SMA. Subsequent bounce approaches pivotal 109 barrier, 50% retracement of 110.07/108 downleg / daily Tenkan-sen line, where rallies should be capped, to keep near-term bears in play for fresh leg lower, which is expected to re-visit 108/107.90 support zone, with extension to 107 support, 16 Sep higher low, seen on extension. Conversely, break and close above 109 barrier, to signal an end of corrective phase and re-focus 110 target zone.
    Res: 109.00; 109.28; 109.49; 109.73
    Sup: 108.73; 108.34; 108.00; 107.90

    The pair extends corrective rally off fresh low at 0.8660, with near-term price action being congested under fresh high at 0.8825, after cracking psychological 0.88 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8895/0.8660 descend and 4-hour 55SMA. Positive near-term structure favors eventual break above 0.8800/25 barriers, to spark stronger bounce and open next significant targets at 0.8900/25 and psychological 0.9000 barrier, in extension. Near-term congestion floor and 38.2% of 0.8660/0.8825 at 0.8762, should hold dips, otherwise, downside risk would increase in case of break below here, as overall bears look for resumption of larger downtrend after the price fully reversed 0.8660/0.9503 rally.
    Res: 0.8825; 0.8851; 0.8895; 0.8925
    Sup: 0.8762; 0.8743; 0.8723; 0.8700

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