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Technical Outlook for Majors 06/10/2014

Discussion in 'Major Currency Pairs' started by WindsorBrokers, Oct 6, 2014.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Content Contributor

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    [​IMG]EURUSD
    Last Friday’s sharp fall tested 1.25, psychological / Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2042/1.3992 support, with daily close just above here, signaling bears fully in play. Daily and weekly close in red supports the notion, as past three weeks long red candles confirm strong bearish stance. Near-term price action is looking for 1.2360, double Fibonacci support, 261.8% expansion of extended third wave from 1.3699, lower top of 01 July and 261.8% Fibonacci projection of the downleg from 1.2697, ahead of final push towards key longer-term support and target at 1.2042, July 2012 low. Narrow consolidation is under way, with stronger rallies expected to be capped under 1.2700/10 resistance, lower tops of 29 Sep / 02 Oct, also 50% of the downleg from 1.2900 to 1.2499.
    Res: 1.2569; 1.2613; 1.2673; 1.2697
    Sup: 1.2499; 1.2450; 1.2400; 1.2360



    [​IMG]GBPUSD
    Cable hit fresh 11-month low on last Friday’s acceleration lower, which eventually took out short-term target and psychological / weekly 200SMA and Fibonacci support at 1.60, which now acts as initial resistance. Friday’s long red candle, along daily / weekly close in red and below 1.60 handle, confirm strong bearish tone. Round-figure support at 1.5900 is seen as immediate target, ahead of 1.5853, low of Nov 2013, with further acceleration lower to open 1.5750, June 2013 high and 1.5720, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189, July 2013 / July 2014 rally. On the upside, penetration of 1.60 barrier, to face 1.6064, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6248/1.5950 descend / hourly 55SMA, ahead of 1.6100, round-figure / 50% retracement.
    Res: 1.6000; 1.6064; 1.6100; 1.6135
    Sup: 1.5950; 1.5900; 1.5853; 1.5800



    [​IMG]USDJPY
    The pair pulls back from fresh recovery peak at 109.89, where last Friday’s acceleration of rally from 108 support, stalled, shy of psychological 110 barrier. Corrective pullback should ideally hold above 109 support, near the mid-point of 108/109.89 rally, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, to keep near-term bullish structure intact for eventual attempt through 110 barrier, towards the next target at 110.66, Aug 2008 peak. Conversely, loss of 109 handle would risk further easing towards 108.40, daily 20SMA and key near-term support at 108, 02 Oct low, loss of which to signal stronger correction.
    Res: 109.89; 110.00; 110.66; 111.00
    Sup: 109.17; 109.00; 108.72; 108.40



    [​IMG]AUDUSD
    The pair maintains overall negative tone after 0.8658/0.9503 ascend was fully retraced, with daily and weekly close in red, supporting the notion. Fresh weakness requires clear break below 0.8658/41 lows, to resume larger downtrend towards 0.8543, 50% retracement of long-term rally from 0.6007 to 1.1079, 2008/2011 ascend. Bounce is so far seen as corrective action, which is going to precede fresh weakness and should stay capped under 0.88 lower top and psychological barrier. Only sustained break above 0.8825, 02 Oct peak, would neutralize bears.
    Res: 0.8733; 0.8755; 0.8800; 0.8825
    Sup: 0.8684; 0.8641; 0.8600; 0.8543
     
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