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Technical Outlook for Majors 10/12/2014

Discussion in 'Major Currency Pairs' started by WindsorBrokers, Dec 10, 2014.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Content Contributor

    Feb 18, 2010
    Likes Received:
    The Euro resumed near-term corrective action off 1.2244 low and nearly fully retraced 1.2455/1.2245 downleg. The rally stalled on approach to 1.2455 breakpoint, 04 Dec high, with subsequent pullback finding temporary support at 1.2360, previous base. Daily 10/20SMA’s have been cracked but daily close occurred below both moving averages, which suggests extended consolidation before fresh attempt higher. Near-term technicals are positive and favor further upside actions, which require break and close above daily 20SMA, currently at 1.2436, with extension above pivotal 1.2455 barrier, required to confirm bullish resumption and open next pivotal barrier at 1.2530, 26 Nov lower top. Underlying bearish trend, however, warns of upside rejection under pivotal barriers. Bears are expected to come in play and signal 4-hour double-top formation, in case pullback from yesterday’s recovery peak at 1.2446, extends and closes below 1.2342, 08 Dec former high and below 50% of 1.2244/1.2446 recovery rally.
    Res: 1.2400; 1.2446; 1.2455; 1.2505
    Sup: 1.2360; 1.2342; 1.2321; 1.2290

    Near-term bulls are gaining traction, as the pair probed above 1.57 barrier, also cracking dynamic barrier of 10 and 20SMA’s, but so far failing to close above. Near-term price action is consolidating around 1.57 handle and holds positive tone. Sustained break and close above 1.57, would keep upside in play, for attempts at 1.5761 and pivotal 1.5823, peak of 27 Nov. Overall negative structure and yesterday’s Doji, along with failure to clear daily 10/20SMA’s, could be a limiting factors for fresh near-term bulls.
    Res: 1.5700; 1.5715; 1.5724; 1.5761
    Sup: 1.5650; 1.5624; 1.5600; 1.5577

    The pair extended pullback from fresh high at 121.83, to spike to 117.93 low, where daily 20SMA contained weakness for now. Subsequent choppy trading shows no direction, with near-term studies holding bearish tone and corrective attempts off 117.93 low, being capped at 119.90, 50% retracement of 121.83/117.93 descend. Having psychological 120 barrier intact, fresh bears will remain as favored near-term scenario, with renewed attempts below 118 handle and daily close below 20SMA, required to confirm bearish resumption and open next significant support at 117.22, 27 Nov higher low. This is also required to complete Three Black Crows reversal pattern, which would signal stronger correction of 105.18/121.83 rally. Alternative scenario requires break and close above 120 handle, to ease downside pressure.
    Res: 119.90; 120.10; 120.34; 121.00
    Sup: 118.67; 117.93; 117.22; 117.00

    Yesterday’s long-legged Doji signals hesitation ahead of psychological 0.82 support, with corrective attempts above 0.83 level, suggesting further consolidation. Overall negative structure, however, sees upside attempts limited for now. Yesterday’s peak at 0.8370, reinforced by descending daily Tenkan-sen line, along with psychological 0.84 barrier, also daily 10SMA, are seen as initial breakpoints, with break and close above, to signal further recovery. Otherwise, consolidative phase is likely to precede fresh attempts lower, with 0.8051, May 2010 low and psychological 0.8000 support, being in focus.
    Res: 0.8336; 0.8370; 0.8400; 0.8415
    Sup: 0.8300; 0.8262; 0.8222, 0.8200

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