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Technical Outlook for Majors 25/11/2014

Discussion in 'Major Currency Pairs' started by WindsorBrokers, Nov 25, 2014.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Content Contributor

    Feb 18, 2010
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    The Euro averts immediate downside risk, on a bounce from 1.2360 lows, where double-bottom is under formation and offering solid support for now. Yesterday’s positive close signals possible stronger recovery attempts, however, bounce stays for now capped under initial barrier and first breakpoint at 1.2450, broken bull-channel support / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2597/1.2360. Break here to open 1.2480, 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line and psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% barrier at 1.2500, above which to confirm recovery. Hourly indicators are struggling above the midlines, while negative tone prevails on a larger timeframes and sees limited upside action for now. Unless the price returns above 1.25 barrier, which would expose pivotal 1.26 barrier in the near-term, prolonged consolidative phase is expected to precede fresh attempts lower. Break below 1.2360 base to resume broader downtrend and look for key targets at 1.2100, trendline support and 1.2042, low of 24 July 2012.
    Res: 1.2450; 1.2480; 1.2500; 1.2541
    Sup: 1.2414; 1.2395; 1.2372; 1.2360

    Cable remains in extended consolidation above fresh lows at 1.5590, with current range tops being reinforced by descending 4-hour 55EMA. Yesterday’s Outside Day, along with crack of initial dynamic barriers of the daily chart, 10SMA and Tenkan-sen line, would mark near-term base and signal stronger recovery. Today’s close above congestion tops at 1.5735, is seen as minimum requirement to spark corrective action. Regain of the next significant barrier at 1.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5588 downleg, to confirm and open pivotal 1.5939, lower top. However, caution is required as near-term studies show improvement but larger picture remains bearish. Repeated failure at range ceiling, to signal prolonged consolidation, with downside risk in play.
    Res: 1.5712; 1.5735; 1.5765; 1.5805
    Sup: 1.5646; 1.5624; 1.5590; 1.5550

    Near-term structure weakened, as recovery attempts off 117.33 low, where the pair attempts higher base, failed to sustain gains above 118.35 lower tops and subsequent weakness increases risk of fresh attack at 117.33. The price probes below hourly cloud base at 117.75, the last significant support ahead of 117.33, below which to complete hourly failure swing for stronger pullback, as daily studies are overbought. Sustained break below 117.33 to open 117.10/00, daily Tenkan-sen line / psychological support, with 116.51, Fibonacci 38.2% of 112.56/118.96 ascend, in extension. Alternative scenario requires break above 118.56, overnight’s recovery rejection, to re-focus pivotal 118.96 top.
    Res: 118.20; 118.56; 118.71; 118.96
    Sup: 117.68; 117.33; 117.10; 117.00

    Near-term structure turned bearish after the pair completed 5-day corrective rally from 0.8564 to 0.8720. Return to 0.8564 low, also cracked near-term bull-trendline, connecting 0.8539/0.8564 lows, exposing pivotal 0.8539 support, 07 Nov low. Yesterday’s close in red confirms negative stance for eventual completion of 0.8539/0.8794 correction. Break lower to signal an end of near-term consolidative phase and resumption of larger downtrend, towards next targets at psychological 0.8500 level and 0.8460, bear-trendline, connecting 2008 peak at 0.9848 and Jan 2014 low at 0.8658.
    Res: 0.8568; 0.8600; 0.8618; 0.8660
    Sup: 0.8500; 0.8460; 0.8441; 0.8400

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