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Technical Outlook for Majors 27/02/2015

Discussion in 'Major Currency Pairs' started by WindsorBrokers, Feb 27, 2015.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Content Contributor

    Feb 18, 2010
    Likes Received:
    The Euro accelerated lower yesterday after dollar-supportive US data and eventually broke below pivotal 1.1260 support. Fresh weakness probed below psychological 1.1200 support, where temporary footstep was found, signaling an end of one-month consolidative phase and shifting near-term focus lower. Near-term technicals turned into bearish mode, with daily 10/20SMA’s starting to point lower and 20d Bollingers widening that suggests further bearish action and focuses key short-term support at 1.1096, low of 26 Jan. The pair is poised for negative weekly close that supports scenario of full retracement of 1.1096/1.1532 corrective phase and signals resumption of larger bear-leg that commenced from 1.3992, May 2014 lower top. Yesterday’s close below 1.12 handle, also Fibonacci 61.8% of multi-year 0.8225/1.06039 ascend, supports the notion. Corrective rallies are expected to precede fresh leg lower, as near-term studies are oversold. Former breakpoint at 1.1260, also Fibonacci 38.2% of yesterday’s acceleration, offers solid resistance and should ideally cap corrective rallies. Only close above psychological 1.13 barrier and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.1378/1.1182 downleg, would sideline immediate bears.
    Res: 1.1230; 1.1260; 1.1280; 1.1300
    Sup: 1.1182; 1.1150; 1.1096; 1.1000

    [​IMG]GBPUSD</p>Cable lost traction after break above daily cloud top stalled at 1.5551 and subsequent acceleration lower erased over 61.8% of 1.5330/1.5551 upleg. Yesterday’s long red candle signals increased downside pressure, as 4-hour studies are attempting to break below the midlines that is, together with close below 1.54 handle, required to confirm near-term bears fully in play for further easing. Corrective rallies were so far capped by initial barrier at 1.5450 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5551/1.5392 downleg / daily cloud top, with renewed weakness probing again below 1.54 handle. However, daily studies remain bullish and see current pullback as corrective phase, with extended weakness required to reverse above 1.5330 higher base / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.4950/1.5551 rally, to keep fresh upside attempts in play. Otherwise, Clear break below 1.5330 would sideline larger bulls.
    Res: 1.5450; 1.5470; 1.5500; 1.5536
    Sup: 1.5383; 1.5330; 1.5315; 1.5250

    Near-term tone improved on yesterday’s rally and attempt above pivotal 119.40 barrier, where trading was closed. Daily structure remains positive and keeps focus at the upside, after yesterday’s close in long green candle and the downside being well protected by rising daily 20SMA and Kijun-sen line that reinforces near-term higher base at 118.66. However, clear break above near-term range tops hasn’t occurred yet and risk of prolonged sideways trade remains in play. Close above 119.40 is required to signal bullish resumption and expose 119.82, 24 Feb spike high, ahead of psychological 120 barrier and key 120.46, 11 Feb high. Initial support lies at 119 zone, daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line and the mid-point of 118.66/119.49 upleg. Holding above here is needed to keep upside targets in play, otherwise, range floor levels would come under pressure in case of break lower.
    Res: 119.49; 119.82; 120.00; 120.46
    Sup: 119.00; 118.86; 118.66; 118.25

    The pair slumped below 0.78 support after recovery rally stalled at 0.7911, marking attempts above one-month consolidative range as false break, for now. Near-term price action is consolidating around 0.78 handle, where daily 20SMA supports. However near-term tone is weak and failure to hold above 0.78 level is expected to trigger further easing and expose 0.7738, former lows and Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.7624/0.7911, loss of which to confirm near-term bears.
    Res: 0.7835; 0.7860; 0.7900; 0.7911
    Sup: 0.7800; 0.7776; 0.7738; 0.7700

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