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The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ActionForex.com, Jun 19, 2009.

  1. ActionForex.com

    ActionForex.com Content Contributor

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    While we saw gains these were very erratic and actually stronger than the conservative view I had. Indeed, this does seem to risk an earlier break higher and while 133.99 remains intact Ideally I'd like to see the upside extend above 134.74-97 and push into the 135.36-71 resistance. I feel...

    complete article here...
     
  2. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    Current status pair EURJPY.
    Flat, most volatility.
    See picture.
    [​IMG]
     
  3. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    EUR/JPY's strong recovery from 132.17 indicates that fall from 138.70 is not ready to resume yet and some more sideway trading could be seen. But after all, consolidation should be relatively brief as long as 134.79 resitsance holds. As discussed before, whole rise from 127.08 should have completed at 138.70 already. Below 132.17 will bring fall resumption to retest 127.08 key support next. However, above 134.79 will suggest that stronger rebound is underway to retest 137.83/138.70 resistance zone.
    [actionforex]
    P&F EURJPY30 "Box Size40X3" HI/LO
    Data 138.693 127.009 ~1 Month ~43.48 Day
    2009-07-08 00~00
    2009-08-20 11~30
    BJF Trading Group
    Code:
    138.80|~40|||________________________________|-0.08%|9.28%
    [COLOR="Red"][B]138.40|~80|||_____________________XO_________|0.21%|8.97%[/B][/COLOR]
    138.00|~120||_____________________XO_________|0.5%|8.65%
    137.60|~160||_________________X_X_XO__X______|0.79%|8.34%
    137.20|~200||_________________XOXOXOX_XO_____|1.08%|8.02%
    136.80|~240||_________________XOXOXOXOXO_____|1.36%|7.71%
    136.40|~280||_________________XOXO_OXOXO_____|1.65%|7.39%
    136.00|~320||_______________X_XO___OXOXO_____|1.94%|7.08%
    135.60|~360||_____________X_XOX____OXO_O_____|2.23%|6.76%
    135.20|~400||_____________XOXOX____OX__O_____|2.52%|6.45%
    134.80|~440||_____________XOXOX____OX__O_____|2.81%|6.13%
    [COLOR="Red"][B]134.40|~480||_________X_X_XOXOX____O___OX_X_X|3.1%|5.82%[/B][/COLOR]
    134.00|~520||_________XOXOXO_OX________OXOXOX|3.38%|5.5%
    133.60|~560||_________XOXOX__OX________OXOXOX|3.67%|5.19%
    133.20|~600||_______X_XO_OX__OX________OXO_OX|3.96%|4.87%
    132.80|~640||_______XOX__OX__O_________O___OX|4.25%|4.56%
    [COLOR="Red"][B]132.40|~680||_______XOX__O_________________O_|4.54%|4.24%[/B][/COLOR]
    132.00|~720||_______XOX______________________|4.83%|3.93%
    131.60|~760||_______XO_______________________|5.11%|3.61%
    131.20|~800||O______X________________________|5.4%|3.3%
    130.80|~840||O__X___X________________________|5.69%|2.98%
    130.40|~880||OX_XO__X________________________|5.98%|2.67%
    130.00|~920||OXOXO__X________________________|6.27%|2.35%
    129.60|~960||OXOXOX_X________________________|6.56%|2.04%
    129.20|~1000|OXO_OXOX________________________|6.84%|1.73%
    128.80|~1040|OX__OXOX________________________|7.13%|1.41%
    128.40|~1080|OX__OXOX________________________|7.42%|1.1%
    128.00|~1120|OX__O_O_________________________|7.71%|0.78%
    127.60|~1160|OX______________________________|8%|0.47%
    127.20|~1200|O_______________________________|8.29%|0.15%
    126.80|~1240|________________________________|8.58%|-0.16%
    Column|||||||18347441473358458144351745143355|
    Count|~1|||||1______3_________2____1___2_____|
     
  4. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    EUR/JPY

    The EUR/JPY pair moved downwards, forming a bearish candlestick. Thus, we keep our outlook for a potential downside action, which is under way, based on the suggested Elliott over the short term basis expected to form a wave[C]. From a harmonic point of view, we believe that CD leg of a harmonic pattern is in progress. Stochastic supports our scenario.

    Trading range for today is among key support at 131.60 and key resistance now at 137.40.

    The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.

    Support: 134.15, 133.60, 133.00, 132.50, 132.00
    Resistance: 134.85, 135.50, 136.00, 136.40, 137.00


    Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair from 134.60 targeting 132.70 and stop loss above 135.95 might be appropriate.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     

    Attached Files:

  5. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    Although the single currency rebounded strongly from 126.95 to 134.54, the sharp retreat from there to 128.78 suggests further choppy consolidation would take place and as long as 128.78 holds, mild upside bias is seen for another bounce to 132.34 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 134.54 to 128.78) but break of 134.54 resistance is needed to add credence to our recent preferred count that the wave 2 from 139.26 was a triple threes. This abc-x-abc-x-abc is labeled as: first set of a-b-c ended at 127.00, then x wave at 138.72, followed by second set of a-b-c at 129.02, then another x wave at 138.49 with the third set of a-b-c marked as: a-131.01, b-135.75 and the c leg as well as entire wave 2 ended at 126.95.
    Our preferred count remains that the upmove from 112.08 is wave 1 of C has ended at 139.26 with minor wave iii ended at 137.42, followed by triangle wave iv at 126.98, then the move from there to 127.00 is wave 2 with the latest break-down indicated above and consolidation with upside bias remains for another test of 134.54 and possibly to 135.00. Looking ahead, only breach of 135.76-136.00 resistance area would add credence to this count and signal wave 2 has indeed ended at 126.95, then headway to 137.00 and later test of resistance at 138.49 would follow.[actionforex]

    "P&F EURJPY240 Box Size 160X4 or(4.68%) HI/LO
    Data 161.65 - 112.072 ~ 16 Month ~ 470.33 Day
    Database 2000 records 130.378 (Last Close)
    2008-08-28 12~00
    2009-12-11 20~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    161.60|~16O||____________________________|0.03%|44.19%
    160.00|~32O||o___________________________|1.02%|42.77%
    158.40|~48O||o___________________________|2.01%|41.34%
    156.80|~64O||oX__________________________|3%|39.91%
    155.20|~8OO||oXo_________________________|3.99%|38.48%
    153.60|~96O||oXo_________________________|4.98%|37.05%
    152.00|~112O|oXo_________________________|5.97%|35.63%
    150.40|~128O|oXo_________________________|6.96%|34.2%
    148.80|~144O|oXo_________________________|7.95%|32.77%
    147.20|~16OO|o_o_________________________|8.94%|31.34%
    145.60|~176O|__o_________________________|9.93%|29.92%
    144.00|~192O|__o_________________________|10.92%|28.49%
    142.40|~2O8O|__o_________________________|11.91%|27.06%
    140.80|~224O|__oX________________________|12.9%|25.63%
    139.20|~24OO|==oXo================X======|13.89%|24.21%
    137.60|~256O|__oXo________________XoX_X__|14.88%|22.78%
    136.00|~272O|__oXo____________X___XoXoXo_|15.87%|21.35%
    134.40|~288O|__oXo__________X_XoX_XoXoXoX|16.86%|19.92%
    132.80|~3O4O|__o_o__________XoXoXoXoXoXoX|17.85%|18.5%
    131.20|~32OO|____o__________XoXoXoXoXoXoX|18.84%|17.07%
    129.60|~336O|____oX_X_____X_XoXoXoXoXo_oX|19.83%|15.64%
    128.00|~352O|====oXoXo====XoXoXoXo=o===o=|20.82%|14.21%
    126.40|~368O|____oXoXo____XoXo_oX________|21.81%|12.78%
    124.80|~384O|____oXoXoX_X_XoX__o_________|22.8%|11.36%
    123.20|~4OOO|____oXo_oXoXoXoX____________|23.79%|9.93%
    121.60|~416O|____oX__oXoXoXoX____________|24.78%|8.5%
    120.00|~432O|____oX__oXoXoXoX____________|25.77%|7.07%
    118.40|~448O|____oX__o_oXoXoX____________|26.76%|5.65%
    116.80|~464O|____oX____o_o_oX____________|27.75%|4.22%
    115.20|~48OO|____o_________oX____________|28.73%|2.79%
    113.60|~496O|______________o_____________|29.72%|1.36%
    112.00|~512O|____________________________|30.71%|-0.06%
    Column|~528O|9615194474555811567647765564|
    Count|~544O||__5_6_________O3____________|


    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group-EURJPY_4h30min_91211.xls
     
  6. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    New trading strategy

    Bought at 129.20, Target: 131.00, Stop: 128.65

    Despite intra-day fall to 128.73, as the move from 134.37 is still viewed as retracement of the rise from 127.32, suggesting downside would be limited and bring another rebound later. Above 131.00 would signal low has possibly been formed but break of 131.52 (previous support turned resistance) is needed to confirm low has been formed, then stronger rebound to 132.40/50 and later towards 133.65.[Written by actionforex]

    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  7. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    EURJPY Outlook
    As you can see in charts below, the lower line of the bullish channel did a good job preventing further bearish pressure and keep the bullish scenario intact. The bias is neutral in nearest term as we haven't see significant bullish momentum so far. Immediate resistance at 125.65. Break above that area could trigger further bullish momentum targeting 126.50 region. Initial support at 124.66 (current low). Break below that area could trigger further downside pressure re-testing the lower line of the bullish channel once again.

    "P&F EURJPY1440 Box Size200X3 or(4.25%) HI/LO
    Data 169.97 - 112.16 ~ 37 Month ~ 1152 Day
    Database 825 records 124.7 (Last Close)
    2007-03-05 00~00
    2010-04-30 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  8. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy Stop at 111.60; Target: 115.20 ; Stop: 110.40.
    As the single currency has rallied last Friday on risk appetite after Friday’s release of stronger-than-expected U.S. data, adding credence to our view that wave 5 has ended at 108.06 earlier and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement of recent decline to 113.40/50 and later towards 114.16, which is likely to hold on first testing.

    "P&F EURJPY10080 Box Size30X4 or(8.66%) HI/LO
    Data 188.22 - 88.87 ~ 241 Month ~ 7343 Day
    Database 1050 records 112.468 (Last Close)
    1990-05-06 00~00
    2010-06-13 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    189.00|~3OO||__+___________________________________________________________|-0.41%|112.67%
    186.00|~6OO||__x_+_________________________________________________________|1.18%|109.29%
    183.00|~9OO||__x_o_+_______________________________________________________|2.77%|105.92%
    180.00|~12OO|__x_o___+_____________________________________________________|4.37%|102.54%
    177.00|~15OO|o___o_x___+___________________________________________________|5.96%|99.17%
    174.00|~18OO|o___o_x_o_x_+_________________________________________________|7.55%|95.79%
    171.00|~21OO|o___o_x_o_x_o_+_______________________________+_______________|9.15%|92.42%
    168.00|~24OO|____o_x_o_x_o___+_____________________x_______x_+_____________|10.74%|89.04%
    165.00|~27OO|____o_x_o_x_o_____+_______+___________x_o_x___x_o_+___________|12.34%|85.66%
    162.00|~3OOO|____o___o_x_o_______+_____x_+_________x_o_x_o_x_o___+_________|13.93%|82.29%
    159.00|~33OO|________o_x_o_________+___x_o_+_______x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_______|15.52%|78.91%
    156.00|~36OO|________o_x_o___________+_x_o___+_____x_o_x_o_x_o_______+_____|17.12%|75.54%
    153.00|~39OO|________o_x_o_____________x_o_____+___x_o_x_o___o_________+___|18.71%|72.16%
    150.00|~42OO|________o___o_____________x_o_______+_x_o_______o___________+_|20.31%|68.79%
    147.00|~45OO|____________o_________x___x_o_________x_________o_____________|21.9%|65.41%
    144.00|~48OO|____________o_________x_o_x_o_________x_________o_____________|23.49%|62.03%
    141.00|~51OO|____________o_________x_o_x_o_________x_________o_____________|25.09%|58.66%
    138.00|~54OO|____________o_________x_o_x_o_x___x___x_________o_________x___|26.68%|55.28%
    135.00|~57OO|____________o_________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_________x_o_|28.28%|51.91%
    132.00|~6OOO|____________o_________x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_________x_o_|29.87%|48.53%
    129.00|~63OO|____________o_x___x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________o_x___x___x_o_|31.46%|45.16%
    126.00|~66OO|____________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o___________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|33.06%|41.78%
    123.00|~69OO|____________o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_x_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|34.65%|38.4%
    120.00|~72OO|____________o_x_o_x_o_x_____o_x_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|36.24%|35.03%
    117.00|~75OO|____________o___o___o_x_____o_x_________________o_x_o___o_x_o_|37.84%|31.65%
    114.00|~78OO|____________________o_______o_x_______________+_o_______o_+_o_|39.43%|28.28%
    111.00|~81OO|____________________________o_x_____________+___________+___o_|41.03%|24.9%
    108.00|~84OO|____________________________o_x___________+_________________+_|42.62%|21.53%
    105.00|~87OO|____________________________o_x_________+_____________________|44.21%|18.15%
    102.00|~9OOO|____________________________o_x_______+_______________________|45.81%|14.77%
    99.00|~93OO||____________________________o_x_____+_________________________|47.4%|11.4%
    96.00|~96OO||____________________________o_x___+___________________________|49%|8.02%
    93.00|~99OO||____________________________o_x_+_____________________________|50.59%|4.65%
    90.00|~1O2O0|____________________________o_+_______________________________|52.18%|1.27%
    87.00|~1O5O0|____________________________+_________________________________|53.78%|-2.1%
    Column|||||||3_3_8_5_9_8_1_4_4_4_5_1_8_1_2_1_4_4_4_1_6_5_4_5_1_5_4_4_5_8_9_|
    Count||||||||____________9_________1___3_4_6_______4_________8_____________|


    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  9. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    Very risky trading idea : EUR/JPY - Buy at 109.20-80; Target: 114.00-60 ; Stop: 108.60.
    ===============================
    EURJPY Outlook

    The EURJPY slipped below 109.20 support area yesterday but whipsawed to the upside, topped at
    110.42, closed at 110.17 and traded lower earlier today in Asian session around 109.90 at the
    time I wrote this comment. Overall we are still in bearish outlook after violation to the
    bullish channel but price still trapped in range area between 110.70 – 109.20. We need a
    consistent move below 109.20 to continue the bearish pressure testing 108.07 – 107.30 area. On
    the upside, break above 110.70 could be a serious threat to the bearish outlook.
    (fxinstructor)

    "P&F EURJPY30 Box Size 30X4 or(1.08%) HI/LO
    Data 114.724 - 107.306 ~ 2 Month ~ 61.15 Day
    Database 2054 records 109.712 (Last Close)
    2010-06-18 04~00
    2010-08-18 07~30 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"


    114.60|~3O|||________________________________________x_+_______________|0.11%|6.8%
    114.30|~6O|||________________________________________x_o_+_____________|0.37%|6.52%
    114.00|~9O|||________________________________________x_o_x_+___________|0.63%|6.24%
    113.70|~12O||+_______________________________________x_o_x_o_+_________|0.89%|5.96%
    113.40|~15O||x_+_____________________________________x_o_x_o___+_______|1.15%|5.68%
    113.10|~18O||x_o_+_______________x___x___x___________x_o_x_o_____+_____|1.42%|5.4%
    112.80|~21O||x_o___+_____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___x___x_o_x_o_______+___|1.68%|5.12%
    112.50|~24O||x_o_____+_______x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________+_|1.94%|4.84%
    112.20|~27O||x_o_______+_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o___________|2.2%|4.56%
    111.90|~3OO||__o_________+___x_o_x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o___________|2.46%|4.28%
    111.60|~33O||__o___________+_x_o_x_____o___o_+_o_x_o_______o___________|2.72%|4%
    111.30|~36O||__o_____________x_o_x_________+___o_x_______+_o___________|2.98%|3.72%
    111.00|~39O||__o_____________x_o_x_______+_____o_x_____+___o_____x_____|3.25%|3.44%
    110.70|~42O||__o_____x___x___x_o_______+_______o_x___+_____o_x___x_o___|3.51%|3.16%
    110.40|~45O||__o_____x_o_x_o_x_______+_________o_x_+_______o_x_o_x_o_x_|3.77%|2.88%
    110.10|~48O||__o_____x_o_x_o_x_____+___________o_+_________o_x_o_x_o_x_|4.03%|2.6%
    109.80|~51O||__o_____x_o_x_o_x___+_____________+___________o_x_o_x_o_x_|4.29%|2.32%
    109.50|~54O||__o_____x_o_x_o___+___________________________o___o___o_x_|4.55%|2.04%
    109.20|~57O||__o_____x_o_____+_____________________________________o_+_|4.82%|1.77%
    108.90|~6OO||__o_x___x_____+_______________________________________+___|5.08%|1.49%
    108.60|~63O||__o_x_o_x___+_____________________________________________|5.34%|1.21%
    108.30|~66O||__o_x_o_x_+_______________________________________________|5.6%|0.93%
    108.00|~69O||__o_x_o_x_________________________________________________|5.86%|0.65%
    107.70|~72O||__o_x_o___________________________________________________|6.12%|0.37%
    107.40|~75O||__o_+_____________________________________________________|6.38%|0.09%
    107.10|~78O||__+_______________________________________________________|6.65%|-0.19%
    Column|~81O||5_2_5_4_1_5_5_4_1_6_8_4_4_5_5_5_4_9_9_4_1_8_6_1_4_4_5_6_4_|
    Count|~84O|||__O_____O_______O_______________________O_____5___________|


    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
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