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The oil prices are still moving the market sentiment

Discussion in 'Current Market Sentiments' started by fx-recommends, Feb 28, 2016.

  1. fx-recommends

    fx-recommends Content Contributor

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    The greenback could be boosted by US Q4 upward revision to 1% growth annually from only 0.7% preliminary reading, after growth by 2% in Q3 following expansion by 3.9% in the second quarter of last year.

    The economic expansion deceleration to 1% in Q4 of last year could only lower the worries about the US economy but it cannot eliminate the fear of watching economic shrinking in the first quarter of this year which is depressed by harsh winter again could previously cause contraction in the first quarter of 2014 and 2015.

    The comments which came out from the Fed's officials are all referring to adopting waiting and see stance for assessing the global economic slowdown and the financial development implications on the US economy.

    While the inflation outlook in US is still sized by lower global economic expansion and lower oil prices preventing the Fed to be in rush for raising the interest rate to contain inflation upside risks.

    In the same time, the US economy is still looking in need to the current Fed's accommodative stance at this level, after GDP annualized deceleration in the recent 3 quarters and manufacturing performance contraction in the recent 3 months because of the rising odds of raising the interest rate which supported the greenback from another side.

    While the downside risks are mounting this quarter by continued economic deceleration in China and higher concerns about the financial situation of the banking sector amid the lower commodities and energy prices which caused depression in the mining sector.

    Baker Hughes weekly report came by the end of last week to say that US Oil Rigs have fallen to only 400 which are less than third the working rigs number a year ago.

    The report could tackle the oil prices progress by the end of last week weighing down on the risk appetite, as it could highlight the current lower need for digging for oil.

    Brent Apr. 16 Daily 29-02-2016 03-27-29 ص.jpg
    Last Friday Brent Apr. 16 could surpass its previous resistance at $36.75 which capped its rebound on last Jan. 28 but it came under pressure, after reaching $36.98 to go down for trading near $35.40 in the beginning hours of this new week.

    Brent Apr. 16 daily RSI (14) is still in the neutral region reading 55.083 and also its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in neutral area reading 67.222 and also its signal line which is reading now 62.793.

    Brent Apr. 16 daily MACD (12, 26, 9) which is less sensitive to the volatility could have its main line above the zero line at 0.324, while its signal line is still in the negative region reading -0.016 now.

    Brent Apr. 16 daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) is reading now $30.84 in its eighth day of being below the trading rate which is still above its daily SMA20 and daily SMA50.


    Important levels: Daily SMA20 @ $33.56, Daily SMA50 @ $33.68, Daily SMA100 @ $39.63 and Daily SMA200 @ $47.24

    S&R:

    S1: $31.80
    S2: $29.87
    S3: $27.10
    R1: $36.98
    R2: $39.68
    R3: $41.56

    Have a good day

    Kind Regards
    Global Market Strategist
    Walid Salah El Din
    Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
    E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com
    http://www.fx-recommends.com
     
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