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The oil rebound could fuel the risk appetite, despite the US economic deceleration

Discussion in 'Current Market Sentiments' started by fx-recommends, Feb 1, 2016.

  1. fx-recommends

    fx-recommends Content Contributor

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    The oil benchmarks can find it harder meanwhile to stabilize again below 30$ which is looking the price that could exercise the oil exporters patience.
    The oil prices could be boosted by seen tries from OPEC members and non-OPEC members oil exporters to reach a compromise for cutting their productions.
    From another side, Baker Hughes weekly report came to say that US Oil Rigs have fallen by another 12 to 498, after operating 1223 a year ago.
    EIA said also last Friday in its monthly report that the US productions came down to 9.317m daily in November from 9.370m in October. The oil prices in November were well above 40$. So, this number can go severely down with January prices. From another side, the prospects of keeping the interest rate unchanged in US for longer time could support the energy and the commodities prices, after the preliminary release of US Q4 GDP had shown last Friday annual growth by only 0.7%, while the consensus was referring to 0.8%, after expansion by 2% in the third quarter and 3.9% in the second quarter of last year.
    This GDP expansion deceleration pace can lead to contraction in this Q1 with the current harsh winter like what has happened in 2014 and 2015.
    This weaker than expected figure of 2015 Q4 came after the FOMC had clarified earlier last week that it is in waiting and see stance for assessing the global economic slowdown and the financial development implications for the labor market, the inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.
    It is important today to wait for Jan Manufacturing PMI data from EU, UK figures and also US ISM Manufacturing index which is expected to make progress, after Jan Chicago Manufacturing PMI came by the end of last week to show rebounding to 55.6 from 42.9 in December.


    Have a good day

    Walid Salah El din
    Senior Market Analyst
    Skype : chief.economist.walid

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