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The turn is on the Fed to highlight the global economic downside risks

Discussion in 'Current Market Sentiments' started by fx-recommends, Mar 14, 2016.

  1. fx-recommends

    fx-recommends Content Contributor

    Aug 6, 2008
    Likes Received:
    The ECB represented its new easing package last week for propping up inflation and supporting the EU economy versus the global economic downside risks.

    But The ECB's president Mario Draghi liked to direct the markets further during the regular post-decision press conference by saying that the ECB would be moving away from interest rate cuts towards "unconventional" measures in the future adding that rates can go into unlimited negative territory to cap the expectations of using more interest rate cuts for supporting the economy.

    The single currency reacted positively to his signal to rebound across the broad, after direct diving following the decisions of cutting the deposit rate by 0.1% to a new historical low at -0.4%, raising the pace of its QE buying from €60bn to €80bn a month and offering unlimited LTRO loans to banks for 4 years at near-zero cost to lower the pressure of cutting the interest rate on the banking sector.

    From another side, the greenback came under pressure across the broad, as the markets participants lowered their expectations of watching new interest rate hikes in US soon and the turn is now on the Fed to refer to the negative impact of the global economic slowdown to signal longer waiting for the next tightening step, despite the US labor market continued improving.

    The appetite of loading US equities could be boosted by these odds which weighed down on the demand for US treasuries in the same time driving its yields up by the end of last week ahead of this week new FOMC meeting.

    EURUSD Daily 14-03-2016 05-59-35 ص.jpg

    EURUSD outlook improved by forming another bottom at 1.0824 above the trendline resistance extension from 1.3992 to 1.1712.

    The pair daily RSI-14 is in the neutral region but close to the overbought area above 70 reading now 60.761, while its daily Stochastic Oscillator (5, 3, 3) which is more sensitive to the volatility is still having its main line in its overbought region above 80 reading now 85.802 keeping with its signal line which is reading now 83.856.

    After last Thursday volatility the pair is now in its second day of continued existence above its daily Parabolic SAR (step 0.02, maximum 0.2) which is reading today 1.0820.

    EURUSD bouncing up to 1.1216 is still placing it so far above its daily SMA50, its daily SMA100 and its daily SMA200.

    Important levels: Daily SMA50 @ 1.0996, Daily SMA100 @ 1.0915 and Daily SMA200 @ 1.1043


    S1: 1.1079
    S2: 1.1000
    S3: 1.0824
    R1: 1.1216
    R2: 1.1375
    R3: 1.1491

    Have a good day

    Kind Regards
    Global Market Strategist
    Walid Salah El Din
    Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
    E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com

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