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'Tis the season to be German (who'd have thought!)

Discussion in 'Forex Daily News & Outlook' started by WMR, Dec 20, 2010.

  1. WMR

    WMR New Member

    Dec 17, 2010
    Likes Received:
    Here's a condensed review for Germany which may be of help to some of you.

    -FX 1 year move (Dec 2009-Nov 2010)
    EUR/USD: -8%
    EUR/JPY: -16%
    EUR/CHF: -11%
    EUR/GBP: -6%
    Euro's fall against the majors may only benefit Germany and their exports.

    - Index 1 year move (Dec 2009-Nov 2010)
    DAX: +12.3%
    The best performing Index (DOW +5%, FTSE100 +2% and NIKKEI - 6%).

    - Government Bonds 1 year move (Dec 2009-Nov 2010)
    10 year Bond Yield: - 21% (end Nov. '10 2.68%)
    The country where investors have put the biggest amount of trust in.

    - Commodities 1 year move (Dec 2009-Nov 2010)
    Is Germany holding sufficient Futures in the sector? Its heavy and technology industry will both be affected by the important yearly increases (e.g. Oil + 5%, Copper +27%, Silver + 60%...). Letting the Euro drop by so much may be an indication that they've already bought have they are going to need.

    - GDP (in millions)
    2009: 3,339,000
    2010: 3,305,898 (latest estimate)
    2011: 3,358,242 (latest estimate)

    - Inflation, Unemployment Rate and Industrial Production Levels: Although they ought to be the best indicators for the economy, they are subject to both political "massaging" of the figures and constant revisions (upwards, downwards, sideways, diagonally) and therefore they cannot possibly represent a descent indicator.

    Important Positives:
    - The tax crackdown. Extensive concessions given to Germany by Switzerland, but also and equally importantly by Luxembourg. Although less publicised than the ones given to the US, they will increase tax revenue
    - They are the biggest lender of governments on a European scale, which may mean steady income

    Important Negatives:
    - They sure didn't make any friends this year and what's worst, they've managed to anger the people they've lent money to- the worst kind of enemy. Greece, Ireland and who knows who else, may just decide one fine day to pull a fast one and declare themselves bankrupt
    - Already several corruption cases against German companies have been settled in the US and more are being prepared in Europe.

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