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Usd/Jpy; Below 90 Again? Dollar Index; Triangle completed? Short Dollar?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ActionForex.com, Jul 9, 2009.

  1. ActionForex.com

    ActionForex.com Content Contributor

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    Usd/Jpy made an amazing decline in Wednesday sessions, which we believe was a red wave iii) move. This move was confirmed soon as the wave i) lows (94.66) were taken out, with a new target around 93.00. Prices fell 100 pips lower, to the 91.79 area, which looks to be...

    complete article here...
     
  2. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    The broader currency market is still struggling with congestion. This means the USDJPY range opportunity that we have highlighted should be treated with care.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
     
  3. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    Since April, the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) has steadily lost value against the Japanese yen (JPY). Across the Asia Pacific, the USD/JPY cross rate remains a key barometer of a two-way play of global economic fundamentals and risk aversion.

    This barometer has experienced many high and low points in the last 26 months. In June 2007, the USD/JPY traded a five-year high of 124.16 to the USD. As far as the fundamentals were concerned, that five-year high was more about a weaker yen, than a stronger U.S. dollar. Over these 26 months, through better and worse, USD/JPY has declined as the yen has appreciated 25 percent against the U.S. dollar.

    This 25 percent decline in USD/JPY is illustrated in Chart 1, with the initial change of trend signal appearing soon after the USD/JPY five-year high in June 2007. The red line over the price bars illustrate the MACD predictor (referred to as DiNapoliMP or “DiNapoli MACD predictor”). The regular DiNapoli MACD is shown at the bottom the chart.

    The mechanics of the predictor are relatively simple. As shown in the chart when the price of USD/JPY fell below the red line on the price axis (MACD predictor), the corresponding trend as shown on the regular DiNapoli MACD is bearish (the MACD line is below the blue MACD signal line). The advantage of the MACD predictor is it gives a specific point reading on the price axis when the trend on the regular MACD is turning up or down ahead of market action. That price point for mid 2007 was a close below 118.60 for a confirmed bearish trend.

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    Excel_USDJPY_31 EYARS
     
    #3 MDunleavy, Nov 5, 2009
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2009
  4. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    USD/JPY recovers mildly today but still, intraday bias remains on the downside with 90.41 minor resistance intact. Break of 89.44 will confirm that fall fro 92.31 has resumed and should target a test on 88.00 low first. On the upside, above 90.41 will turn intraday bias neutral again. Further break of 91.26 resistance will argue that choppy fall from 92.31 has completed already and will turn focus back to this resistance.

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    Excel_091111_usdjpy_1h.xls
     
  5. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
    USD/JPY's sharp fall and break of 87.12 support last week confirmed out bearish view that the long term down trend is still in progress. With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some consolidations could be seen initially this week first. But upside is expected to be limited well below 89.44 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 84.81 will target 100% projection of 97.77 to 88.00 from 92.31 at 82.54 next.[actionforex]

    "P&F USDJPY30 Box Size 25X3 or(0.85%) HI/LO
    Data 92.251 - 85.152 ~ 2 Month ~ 60.06 Day
    Database 2000 records 86.181 (Last Close)
    2009-10-01 06~30
    2009-11-30 08~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    92.25|~25|||________________________x_______________________________|0%|8.34%
    92.00|~5O|||____________________x_o_x_o_____________________________|0.27%|8.04%
    91.75|~75|||____________________x_o___o_____________________________|0.54%|7.75%
    91.50|~1OO||____________________x_____o_x___________________________|0.81%|7.45%
    91.25|~125||________________x___x_____o_x_o_x_______________________|1.09%|7.16%
    91.00|~15O||________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_____________________|1.36%|6.87%
    90.75|~175||________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x___________________|1.63%|6.57%
    90.50|~2OO||________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_______________|1.9%|6.28%
    90.25|~225||____________x___x_o_______o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________|2.17%|5.99%
    90.00|~25O||____________x_o_x_____________o_x_o___o_x_o_____________|2.44%|5.69%
    89.75|~275||x_o_x_______x_o_x_____________o_x_____o_x_o_____________|2.71%|5.4%
    89.50|~3OO||==o=x=o=====x=o=x=============o=======o===o=x===========|2.98%|5.11%
    89.25|~325||__o_x_o_x___x_o_x_________________________o_x_o_________|3.25%|4.81%
    89.00|~35O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o___________________________o_x_o_________|3.52%|4.52%
    88.75|~375||__o___o_x_o_x_____________________________o___o_________|3.8%|4.23%
    88.50|~4OO||______o_x_o_x_________________________________o_________|4.07%|3.93%
    88.25|~425||======o===o===================================o=========|4.34%|3.64%
    88.00|~45O||______________________________________________o_________|4.61%|3.34%
    87.75|~475||______________________________________________o_________|4.88%|3.05%
    87.50|~5OO||______________________________________________o_________|5.15%|2.76%
    87.25|~525||______________________________________________o_________|5.42%|2.46%
    87.00|~55O||==============================================o=====x===|5.69%|2.17%
    86.75|~575||______________________________________________o_____x_o_|5.96%|1.88%
    86.50|~6OO||______________________________________________o_x___x_o_|6.23%|1.58%
    86.25|~625||______________________________________________o_x_o_x_o_|6.51%|1.29%
    86.00|~65O||______________________________________________o_x_o_x___|6.78%|1%
    85.75|~675||______________________________________________o_x_o_____|7.05%|0.7%
    85.50|~7OO||______________________________________________o_x_______|7.32%|0.41%
    85.25|~725||______________________________________________o_x_______|7.59%|0.12%
    85.00|~75O||______________________________________________o_________|7.86%|-0.18%
    Column||||||1_5_4_6_4_4_8_5_9_4_7_2_2_8_5_8_7_5_3_5_4_7_3_186_3_5_3_|
    Count


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    BJF-Trading-Group-USDJPY_mix_091130.xls
     
  6. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    The USDJPY has soared since yesterday’s low…over 200 pips. The rally has reached the 50% retracement of the decline from 9217. This level is reinforced by a congestion zone. After seeing steady gains throughout the week, the Yen was battered following a better than expected U.S. Non-farm payroll report. USD/JPY soared over 200 pips to erase of all of the week’s losses for the pair which had diverged from rising equity markets prior to the move.

    "P&F USDJPY1440 Box Size 135X4 or(5.13%) HI/LO
    Data 125.75 - 84.819 ~ 92 Month ~ 2800 Day
    Database 2000 records 90.27 (Last Close)
    2002-07-05 00~00
    2010-03-05 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    125.55|~135||_X_X__________________________|0.16%|48.02%
    124.20|~27O||_XoXo_________________________|1.23%|46.43%
    122.85|~4O5||_XoXo________X________________|2.31%|44.84%
    121.50|~54O||_XoXo______X_Xo_______________|3.38%|43.25%
    120.15|~675||_Xo_o____X_XoXo_______________|4.45%|41.65%
    118.80|~81O||oX__o____XoXoXo_______________|5.53%|40.06%
    117.45|~945||oX__o____XoXoXoX______________|6.6%|38.47%
    116.10|~1O8O|o___o____XoXo_oXo_____________|7.67%|36.88%
    114.75|~1215|____o__X_XoX__oXoX____________|8.75%|35.29%
    113.40|~135O|____o__XoXoX__oXoXo___________|9.82%|33.7%
    112.05|~1485|____oX_XoXoX__o_oXo___________|10.89%|32.1%
    110.70|~162O|____oXoXoXoX____oXo___________|11.97%|30.51%
    109.35|~1755|____oXoXoXo_____oXoX__________|13.04%|28.92%
    108.00|~189O|____oXoXoX______o_oXo_________|14.12%|27.33%
    106.65|~2O25|____oXoXoX________oXo_________|15.19%|25.74%
    105.30|~216O|____o_oXoX________oXo_________|16.26%|24.15%
    103.95|~2295|______o_oX________oXo_________|17.34%|22.56%
    102.60|~243O|________o_________oXo_________|18.41%|20.96%
    101.25|~2565|__________________oXo____X____|19.48%|19.37%
    99.90|~27OO||__________________oXoX___Xo___|20.56%|17.78%
    98.55|~2835||__________________oXoXo__Xo___|21.63%|16.19%
    97.20|~297O||__________________oXoXo__XoX__|22.7%|14.6%
    95.85|~31O5||__________________o_oXo__XoXo_|23.78%|13.01%
    94.50|~324O||____________________oXoX_XoXo_|24.85%|11.41%
    93.15|~3375||____________________oXoXoXoXoX|25.92%|9.82%
    91.80|~351O||____________________o_oXoXo_oX|27%|8.23%
    90.45|~3645||______________________oXoX__oX|28.07%|6.64%
    89.10|~378O||______________________oXoX__oX|29.15%|5.05%
    87.75|~3915||______________________o_o___oX|30.22%|3.46%
    86.40|~4O5O||____________________________oX|31.29%|1.86%
    85.05|~4185||____________________________o_|32.37%|0.27%
    83.70|~432O||______________________________|33.44%|-1.32%
    Column|||||||374415689189458475111695517496|
    Count||||||||____5____3________4O3____O____|


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    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  7. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    _____I remain bullish on USD/JPY.
    _____Dollar/Yen bottomed out and is now recovering, even without an intervention by the Bank of Japan.
    _____The weakness of the Japanese economy is likely to be confirmed now, pushing the pair higher.
    _____Trade Idea: Usd/Jpy - Buy (Stop Limit) at 82.40; Target: 84.00 ; Stop: 81.60.

    "P&F USDJPY10080 Box Size 270X4 or(9.5%) HI/LO
    Data 147.71 - 79.75 ~ 247.38 Month ~ 7273 Day
    Database 1040 records 82.518 (Last Close)
    1990-12-09 00~00
    2010-11-07 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    148.5|~27O||________________+_______________________|-0.53%|86.21%
    145.8|~54O||________________x_+_____________________|1.29%|82.82%
    143.1|~81O||+_______________x_o_+___________________|3.12%|79.44%
    140.4|~1O8O|x_+_____________x_o___+_________________|4.95%|76.05%
    137.7|~135O|x_o_+___________x_o_____+_______________|6.78%|72.66%
    135.0|~162O|x_o_x_+_________x_o_____x_+_____________|8.6%|69.28%
    132.3|~189O|x_o_x_o_+_______x_o_____x_o_+___________|10.43%|65.89%
    129.6|~216O|__o_x_o___+_____x_o_____x_o___+_________|12.26%|62.51%
    126.9|~243O|__o_x_o_____x___x_o_____x_o_____+_______|14.09%|59.12%
    124.2|~27OO|__o_+_o_____x_o_x_o_x___x_o_______+_____|15.92%|55.74%
    121.5|~297O|__+___o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_______+___|17.74%|52.35%
    118.8|~324O|______o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______+_|19.57%|48.97%
    116.1|~351O|______o_____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________|21.4%|45.58%
    113.4|~378O|______o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_________|23.23%|42.19%
    110.7|~4O5O|______o_x_o_x_o___o___o_x_o_x_o_________|25.06%|38.81%
    108.0|~432O|______o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|26.88%|35.42%
    105.3|~459O|______o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____|28.71%|32.04%
    102.6|~486O|______o_+_o_x_________o___o_+_o_x_o_____|30.54%|28.65%
    99.90|~513O|______+___o_x_____________+___o_x_o_x___|32.37%|25.27%
    97.20|~54OO|__________o_x___________+_____o_+_o_x_o_|34.2%|21.88%
    94.50|~567O|__________o_x_________+_______+___o_x_o_|36.02%|18.5%
    91.80|~594O|__________o_x_______+_____________o_x_o_|37.85%|15.11%
    89.10|~621O|__________o_x_____+_______________o_+_o_|39.68%|11.72%
    86.40|~648O|__________o_x___+_________________+___o_|41.51%|8.34%
    83.70|~675O|==========o=x=+=======================o=X3.33%|4.95%
    81.00|~7O2O|__________o_+_________________________o_|45.16%|1.57%
    78.30|~729O|__________+___________________________+_|46.99%|-1.82%
    Column||||||4_6_4_1_4_1_1_6_1_1_5_8_1_1_7_9_4_7_4_7_|
    Count|||||||______2___2_7___3_3_____2_2_____________|


    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.
     
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