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USDJPY: Outlook Continues To Point Lower.

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ActionForex.com, Jun 23, 2009.

  1. ActionForex.com

    ActionForex.com Content Contributor

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    Weakness continues to be seen in early trading today pushing the pair further lower and opening up threats towards the 94.45 level, its Jun 01'09 low though a potential hammer is now shaping up. A clearance of the 94.45 will leave the pair aiming at the 93.89 level, its May...

    complete article here...
     
  2. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    This is the Point & Figure Chart.
    Point & Figure Chart Just some thoughts on point & figure charting in the forex market. Some may characterize point & figure charting as trading based upon pure price action. This is because only price, which is undeniably the most important aspect of technical analysis, is customarily included on this type of chart. (in the form of X’s and O’s).

    [​IMG]
     
  3. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    USD/JPY Weekly Outlook
    USD/JPY's sharp fall and break of 87.12 support last week confirmed out bearish view that the long term down trend is still in progress. With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, some consolidations could be seen initially this week first. But upside is expected to be limited well below 89.44 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 84.81 will target 100% projection of 97.77 to 88.00 from 92.31 at 82.54 next.[actionforex]

    "P&F USDJPY30 Box Size 25X3 or(0.85%) HI/LO
    Data 92.251 - 85.152 ~ 2 Month ~ 60.06 Day
    Database 2000 records 86.181 (Last Close)
    2009-10-01 06~30
    2009-11-30 08~00
    (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    92.25|~25|||________________________x_______________________________|0%|8.34%
    92.00|~5O|||____________________x_o_x_o_____________________________|0.27%|8.04%
    91.75|~75|||____________________x_o___o_____________________________|0.54%|7.75%
    91.50|~1OO||____________________x_____o_x___________________________|0.81%|7.45%
    91.25|~125||________________x___x_____o_x_o_x_______________________|1.09%|7.16%
    91.00|~15O||________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_____________________|1.36%|6.87%
    90.75|~175||________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x___________________|1.63%|6.57%
    90.50|~2OO||________________x_o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_______________|1.9%|6.28%
    90.25|~225||____________x___x_o_______o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____________|2.17%|5.99%
    90.00|~25O||____________x_o_x_____________o_x_o___o_x_o_____________|2.44%|5.69%
    89.75|~275||x_o_x_______x_o_x_____________o_x_____o_x_o_____________|2.71%|5.4%
    89.50|~3OO||==o=x=o=====x=o=x=============o=======o===o=x===========|2.98%|5.11%
    89.25|~325||__o_x_o_x___x_o_x_________________________o_x_o_________|3.25%|4.81%
    89.00|~35O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o___________________________o_x_o_________|3.52%|4.52%
    88.75|~375||__o___o_x_o_x_____________________________o___o_________|3.8%|4.23%
    88.50|~4OO||______o_x_o_x_________________________________o_________|4.07%|3.93%
    88.25|~425||======o===o===================================o=========|4.34%|3.64%
    88.00|~45O||______________________________________________o_________|4.61%|3.34%
    87.75|~475||______________________________________________o_________|4.88%|3.05%
    87.50|~5OO||______________________________________________o_________|5.15%|2.76%
    87.25|~525||______________________________________________o_________|5.42%|2.46%
    87.00|~55O||==============================================o=====x===|5.69%|2.17%
    86.75|~575||______________________________________________o_____x_o_|5.96%|1.88%
    86.50|~6OO||______________________________________________o_x___x_o_|6.23%|1.58%
    86.25|~625||______________________________________________o_x_o_x_o_|6.51%|1.29%
    86.00|~65O||______________________________________________o_x_o_x___|6.78%|1%
    85.75|~675||______________________________________________o_x_o_____|7.05%|0.7%
    85.50|~7OO||______________________________________________o_x_______|7.32%|0.41%
    85.25|~725||______________________________________________o_x_______|7.59%|0.12%
    85.00|~75O||______________________________________________o_________|7.86%|-0.18%
    Column||||||1_5_4_6_4_4_8_5_9_4_7_2_2_8_5_8_7_5_3_5_4_7_3_186_3_5_3_|
    Count


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  4. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    The short term picture remains positive as the pair continues its strong upward movement. So far the rise is limited by the resistance at 94.70, which is 38.2% FIbo retracement of the 110.64-84.71 drop, and if broken successfully next targets will be the resistances at 96.80 and 97.70, which is 50.0% Fibo retracement of the mentioned drop. On the downside, support is seen at 93.80, followed by 91.80 and 90.20.

    "P&F USD
    JPY1440
    Box Size 130X4 or(4.94%) HI/LO
    Data 125.75 - 84.819 ~ 92 Month ~ 2800 Day
    Database 2000 records 94.031 (Last Close)
    2002-08-06 00~00
    2010-04-06 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group chart"

    126.1|~13O||_________________________________|-0.28%|48.67%
    124.8|~26O||XoX______________________________|0.76%|47.14%
    123.5|~39O||XoXo________X____________________|1.79%|45.6%
    122.2|~52O||XoXo________Xo___________________|2.82%|44.07%
    120.9|~65O||XoXo____X_X_Xo___________________|3.86%|42.54%
    119.6|~78O||Xo_o____XoXoXo___________________|4.89%|41.01%
    118.3|~91O||X__o____XoXoXo___________________|5.92%|39.47%
    117.0|~1O4O|___o____XoXoXoX__________________|6.96%|37.94%
    115.7|~117O|___o____XoXo_oXo_________________|7.99%|36.41%
    114.4|~13OO|___o__X_XoX__oXoX________________|9.03%|34.88%
    113.1|~143O|___o__XoXoX__oXoXo_______________|10.06%|33.34%
    111.8|~156O|___oX_XoXoX__o_oXo_______________|11.09%|31.81%
    110.5|~169O|___oXoXoXoX____oXoX______________|12.13%|30.28%
    109.2|~182O|___oXoXoXo_____oXoXo_____________|13.16%|28.74%
    107.9|~195O|___oXoXoX______o_oXo_____________|14.19%|27.21%
    106.6|~2O8O|___oXoXoX________oXo_____________|15.23%|25.68%
    105.3|~221O|___o_oXoX________oXo_____________|16.26%|24.15%
    104.0|~234O|_____o_oX________oXo_____________|17.3%|22.61%
    102.7|~247O|_______o_________oXo_____________|18.33%|21.08%
    101.4|~26OO|=================oXo======X======|19.36%|19.55%
    100.1|~273O|_________________oXoX_____Xo_____|20.4%|18.02%
    98.80|~286O|_________________oXoXo__X_Xo_____|21.43%|16.48%
    97.50|~299O|_________________oXoXo__XoXoX____|22.47%|14.95%
    96.20|~312O|_________________o_oXo__XoXoXo___|23.5%|13.42%
    94.90|~325O|___________________oXo__XoXoXo___|24.53%|11.89%
    93.60|~338O|===================oXoX=Xo=oXoX=X|25.57%|10.35%
    92.30|~351O|___________________oXoXoX__o_oXoX|26.6%|8.82%
    91.00|~364O|___________________o_oXoX____oXoX|27.63%|7.29%
    89.70|~377O|_____________________oXoX____oXoX|28.67%|5.75%
    88.40|~39OO|_____________________o_o_____oXo_|29.7%|4.22%
    87.10|~4O3O|_____________________________oX__|30.74%|2.69%
    85.80|~416O|=============================o===|31.77%|1.16%
    84.50|~429O|_________________________________|32.8%|-0.38%
    Column||||||654156891994694751117944846749644|
    Count|||||||___5____4________415_____________|


    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  5. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    This pair fell to new lows this week. Prices eventually found temporary support from the trend-line for the rally up from the November ’09 lows and the lower channel line of the 4th of June descent. There are some bullish signs including momentum diverging bullishly and the Elliot wave count is showing a possible start of a small 4th wave although more upside is required to confirm. If this is the case the market may rise slowly over the next week to 90.50, which is also the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud.
    A break lower, however, could lead to 87.00, the point and figure target down and also the old support lows from the ‘08/’09 bottom. They may also pause on the way down at a support at 88.17.

    "P&F USDJPY10080 Box Size60X3 or(10.05%) HI/LO
    Data 278.31 - 79.75 ~ 389 Month ~ 11858 Day
    Database 1695 records 89.223 (Last Close)
    1978-01-01 00~00
    2010-06-20 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    282.00|~6OO||____________+___________________________|-1.33%|253.61%
    276.00|~12OO|____________x_+_________________________|0.83%|246.08%
    270.00|~18OO|____________x_o_+_______________________|2.99%|238.56%
    264.00|~24OO|____________x_o___+_____________________|5.14%|231.03%
    258.00|~3OOO|____x_______x_o_____x___________________|7.3%|223.51%
    252.00|~36OO|____x_o_____x_o_____x_o_________________|9.45%|215.99%
    246.00|~42OO|____x_o_x___x_o_x___x_o_+_______________|11.61%|208.46%
    240.00|~48OO|____x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o___+_____________|13.77%|200.94%
    234.00|~54OO|__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____+___________|15.92%|193.42%
    228.00|~6OOO|__o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_+_o_______+_________|18.08%|185.89%
    222.00|~66OO|__o_x_o_x_o_x_____+___o_________+_______|20.23%|178.37%
    216.00|~72OO|__o_x_o_x_o_____+_____o___________+_____|22.39%|170.85%
    210.00|~78OO|__o_x_o_x_____+_______o_____________+___|24.54%|163.32%
    204.00|~84OO|__o_x_o_____+_________o_______________+_|26.7%|155.8%
    198.00|~9OOO|__o_x_____+___________o_________________|28.86%|148.28%
    192.00|~96OO|__o_x___+_____________o_________________|31.01%|140.75%
    186.0|~1O2OO|__o_x_+_______________o_________________|33.17%|133.23%
    180.0|~1O8OO|__o_+_________________o_________________|35.32%|125.71%
    174.0|~114OO|__+___________________o_________________|37.48%|118.18%
    168.0|~12OOO|______________________o_________________|39.64%|110.66%
    162.0|~126OO|______________________o_________________|41.79%|103.13%
    156.0|~132OO|______________________o_x_______________|43.95%|95.61%
    150.0|~138OO|______________________o_x_o_____________|46.1%|88.09%
    144.0|~144OO|______________________o_x_o_x___________|48.26%|80.56%
    138.0|~15OOO|______________________o_x_o_x_o_________|50.42%|73.04%
    132.0|~156OO|______________________o_x_o_x_o_x_______|52.57%|65.52%
    126.0|~162OO|______________________o___o_x_o_x_o_____|54.73%|57.99%
    120.0|~168OO|__________________________o_x_o_x_o_x___|56.88%|50.47%
    114.0|~174OO|__________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|59.04%|42.95%
    108.0|~18OOO|__________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|61.19%|35.42%
    102.0|~186OO|__________________________o_x_o___o___o_|63.35%|27.9%
    96.00|~192OO|__________________________o_x___+_____o_|65.51%|20.38%
    90.00|~198OO|__________________________o_x_+_______o_|67.66%|12.85%
    84.00|~2O4OO|__________________________o_+_________+_|69.82%|5.33%
    78.00|~21OOO|__________________________+_____________|71.97%|-2.19%
    Column|||||||O_1_1_9_7_5_1_8_3_3_5_2_5_1_1_7_5_5_3_5_|
    Count||||||||__O_3_______O_________2___2_O___________|


    [​IMG]

    BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart
     
  6. MDunleavy

    MDunleavy New Member

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    The Yen opened the last week, on a weak note following an emergency meeting of the Bank of Japan, that announced more liquidity measures. Also the government said that it was planning more stimulus for the economy. A few hours after the Yen not only recovered lost ground but was testing 15-year lows.
    Despite improvement in market sentiment and rising government bond yields as the week went by, the USD/JPY did not rise and moved in ranges below 84.60
    On Friday, after the NFP report, the pair jumped to 85.20 but reversed sharply and pulled back to 84.20 to finish the week below 84.50.
    The dollar broke through primary support at 85.00 and is headed for a test of support at the 1995 low of 80.00 The Bank of Japan threatens to intervene to prevent further appreciation, but there are doubts about the political will to do so. Recovery above 88.00 is unlikely at this stage, but would warn that the down-trend is weakening.
    I believe that we can consider the possibility of opening long positions. Details on the chart.

    "P&F USDJPY1 Box Size 10X3 or(0.35%) HI/LO
    Data 85.894 - 83.666 ~ 0.31 Month ~ 9.02 Day
    Database 12000 records 84.297 (Last Close)
    2010-08-25 22~24
    2010-09-03 22~59 (GMT+01:00) Paris
    BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

    85.90|~1O|||______+_______________________|-0.01%|2.67%
    85.80|~2O|||______x_o_____________________|0.11%|2.55%
    85.70|~3O|||______x_o_+___________________|0.23%|2.43%
    85.60|~4O|||______x_o___+_________________|0.34%|2.31%
    85.50|~5O|||______x_o_____+_______________|0.46%|2.19%
    85.40|~6O|||______x_o_______+_____________|0.58%|2.07%
    85.30|~7O|||______x_o_________+_______+___|0.69%|1.95%
    85.20|~8O|||______x_o___________+_____x_+_|0.81%|1.83%
    85.10|~9O|||______x_o_____________+___x_o_|0.92%|1.71%
    85.00|~1OO||__x___x_o_______________+_x_o_|1.04%|1.59%
    84.90|~11O||__x_o_x_o_________________x_o_|1.16%|1.47%
    84.80|~12O||o_x_o_x_o_________________x_o_|1.27%|1.36%
    84.70|~13O||o_x_o_x_o_________________x_o_|1.39%|1.24%
    84.60|~14O||o_x_o_x_o_____________x___x_o_|1.51%|1.12%
    84.50|~15O||o_x_o___o_x___x___x___x_o_x_o_|1.62%|1%
    84.40|~16O||o_x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|1.74%|0.88%
    84.30|~17O||o_______o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|1.86%|0.76%
    84.20|~18O||________o_x_o___o_x_o_x_o_x___|1.97%|0.64%
    84.10|~19O||________o_______o_x_o_x_o_x___|2.09%|0.52%
    84.00|~2OO||________________o_x_o_x_o___+_|2.21%|0.4%
    83.90|~21O||________________o___o_x___+___|2.32%|0.28%
    83.80|~22O||____________________o_x_+_____|2.44%|0.16%
    83.70|~23O||____________________o_+_______|2.55%|0.04%
    83.60|~24O||____________________+_________|2.67%|-0.08%
    Column||||||6_7_5_1_1_4_3_3_6_6_8_9_6_1_9_|
    Count|||||||______3_8_________________2___|


    [​IMG][​IMG]
    BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size attached.
     

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