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Weekly FX forecast and analysis from NordFX

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by NordFX Sage, Feb 17, 2015.

  1. NordFX Sage

    NordFX Sage New Member

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    Generalized Forex Forecast for 16-20 February 2015


    Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies plus forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, I’d like to point out that green and black colours prevail in the table this week. This means that all the pairs are expected to be in a sideways trend with an aspiration to move upwards:
    - EUR/USD is very likely to carry on with its drive to reach the 1.1550 mark. Nevertheless, there’s a chance that in the first couple of days the pair will go down to 1.1340, bounce off it and then move upwards;
    - the GBP/USD pair can be expected to fall to the level of 1.5300-1.5340 and then rebound to 1.5550;
    - the USD/JPY pair’s strong support is 118.40. After bouncing off it, the pair may charge up to around 121.00. However, this may not happen immediately but only in the last ten days of February;
    - the forecast for USD/CHF remains as before – a further sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies, the nearest target being 0.9400. Bear mind though that in the medium term the pair may break through support at the level of 0.9200 and sharply go down to around 0.9000 where it was at the end of January.

    Last week’s forecast was confirmed almost 100%:
    - it was predicted that EUR/USD would be in a sideways trend with fluctuations around 1.1325, followed by a rise and a move towards 1.1550. The pair did just that – it finished the sideways trend on Friday and shot upwards. However, the level that the pair reached turned out to be a bit more modest – 1.1443;
    - a similar scenario was suggested for the GBP/USD pair. The forecast was fully confirmed, and by the end of the week, the pair reached the target at the level of 1.5400;
    - the USD/JPY pair also fully complied with our predictions. It got to 120.00 by the middle of the week and rolled down by 200 points;
    - no surprises with the USD/CHF pair either – as predicted, it was in a sideways trend all week long, with prevailing bullish tendencies under whose influence the pair regained 100 points.

    Roman Butko, NordFX

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  2. NordFX Sage

    NordFX Sage New Member

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    Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 March 2015

    Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, it can be noted that this week, just like last week, the sideways trend will be dominating for all four pairs:
    - the corridor of 1.1170-1.1310 is most probable for the EUR/USD pair, although technical analysis indications are still contradictory. A number indicators point to bearish trends while some others show the opposite – the pair’s upward drive to 1.1450-1.1500;
    - the GBP/USD pair is predicted to fall to the level of 1.5000 and then further to 1.4810 during March. Short-term, the pair may rise and make another attempt to break through the strong level of support around 1.5550;
    - this week the target for USD/JPY remains the same – 120.50. Strong support is around 118.50, the second support being 117.50;
    - the plan for USD/CHF is as follows: getting up to 0.9735 step by step, then a sharp rebound downwards to around 0.9375 and further to 0.9280. However, the realisation of this scenario may stretch out over several weeks.

    As for last week’s forecast:
    - as predicted, in the first half of the week, EUR/USD stayed in a sideways trend. Then on Thursday, on the news from the USA, it fell sharply and so didn’t meet the expectations of many analysts (including ours);
    - GBP/USD was also expected to move sideways in the range of 1.5340-1.5500. By mid-week, the pair tried to break through the top boundary, reached 1.5550 but the very same news from the USA quickly returned it to the centre of the corridor specified by us;
    - according to our “plan,” USD/JPY was supposed stay in a sideways trend all week long, demonstrating a consistent drive to reach 120.50, which happened, except that the target turned out to be even more modest – 119.80;
    - finally the USD/CHF pair. The forecast of its attempts to reach the 0.9555 mark was confirmed 100%.

    Roman Butko, NordFX


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  3. NordFX Sage

    NordFX Sage New Member

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    Generalized Forex Forecast for 9-13 March 2015

    Looking at what has been happening on the currency markets for the past few weeks, we get the impression that soon our screens will show EUR/USD/CHF = 1.0000.
    In the meantime, generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can note that... analysts are simply perplexed: 25% support growth, 25% support a fall and 50% are just at a loss. Therefore, in our forecast for the coming week, we will primarily focus on the indicators and secondly on our own logic and intuition:
    - for the EUR/USD pair, the corridor 1.0760-1.1225 is most probable, with prevailing bearish trends and the pair’s downward tendency to the level of 1.0700;
    - GBP/USD may rebound to around 1.5225 at the start of the week, followed by a fall all the way down to 1.4910;
    - the USD/JPY pair is likely to rise to the last week’s high of 121.27 and further to the range of 121.80-122.50. Its support will be at 119.50-119.80;
    - the previous plan for USD/CHF stands – moving step by step up towards the symbolic level of 1.0000. The only thing that we can predict is that the movement will be smoother than last week.

    As for last week’s forecast, it turned out to be quite modest:
    - as predicted, the EUR/USD pair spent the first half of the week in a sideways trend but then, thanks to the ECB’s actions and reports from the USA, the pair easily broke through the lower boundary of the range and went down sharply, proving that indicators could be much more accurate than the deliberations of high-browed analysts. (Remember that 83% of indicators pointed towards the fall of the pair while only 32% of analysts were of this opinion.);
    - we predicted that GBP/USD would fall to 1.5000 and then further to 1.4810 during March. But over the past week, the pair completed a massive part of the set task at a record-breaking pace and was short of 1.5000 by a mere 30 points;
    - last week, USD/JPY was predicted to go up to the level of 120.50. It did happen as a matter of fact – the pair completed the weekly session at 120.81. Yet, just a few hours before that the pair had reached 121.27 and only after that it returned to the specified level;
    - the USD/CHF pair also easily beat the target. It was predicted to advance smoothly up to 0.9735 but actually it briskly rose at an angel of almost 45 degrees and made it to 0.9854, exceeding the set target by 120 points.

    Roman Butko, NordFX


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  4. NordFX Sage

    NordFX Sage New Member

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    Generalized Forex Forecast for 16-20 March 2015

    Upon generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, it appears that analysts are still at a complete loss, not quite sure what to expect from the market. Unlike the analysts, indicators and our own intuition send pretty clear signals regarding the upcoming week:
    - EUR/USD is a very short distance away from the coveted mark of 1.0000, which the pair will try to reach in the nearest future. With this, considering the medium term perspective, analysts come out of their stupor and almost unanimously predict a rebound upwards to 1.1000-1.1200 over the next few weeks;
    - as for the GBP/USD pair, the proud Brit can be expected to unwillingly follow the sinking “Titanic”, i.e. the Euro;
    - the USD/JPY pair will try to break out of its sideways trend and rise from the range of 120.90-121.65 to the level of 121.50-122.50. The pair may actually reach its next target 123.00 rather quickly. The main support will be around 120.65-120.80;
    - the plan for USD/CHF remains the same – upwards to 1.0250, in hopes to fully compensate for the losses of January’s “Black Thursday”.

    As for last week’s forecast, my gut feeling was right. Seven days ago, EUR/USD and USD/CHF were predicted to level off around 1.0000. Here are the outcomes:
    - EUR/USD fell by 400 points and made it halfway to the target. Just as much remains till the ultimate target;
    - the USD/CHF pair actually exceeded expectations and reached 1.01250 on Thursday;
    - sticking to the forecast overall, GBP/USD also exceeded the week’s plan. As predicted, it shot up by 100 points on Monday, then rolled downwards and by Thursday reached 1.4910, the mark forecast earlier. Further, the pair rebounded by another 100 points and fell to the level of 1.4750;
    - USD/JPY was expected to rise to around 121.80-122.50, which is what happened – the pair got to the landmark of 122.00 and then entered a sideways trend in the corridor of 120.90-121.65.

    Roman Butko, NordFX

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  5. NordFX Sage

    NordFX Sage New Member

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    Generalized Forex Forecast for 23-27 March 2015

    Summing up in a table the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we had to introduce some changes. If you look at the analysts’ opinions row in the table, along with the symbols of upward, sideways and downward trends, you will find a new one – open hands. As you can imagine, this indicates those analysts who are at a total loss and don’t know what to say. This group is quite large (around 30%) but there are still a few desperate predictors whose opinions we take into account when compiling our forecasts. Therefore:
    - despite EUR/USD’s rebound last week, the pair’s main trend of the last few months remains as is – down to 1.0000. (By the way, the downstream channel with all possible fluctuations is very clear on the H4 chart). The short-term upward trend may continue all the way to 1.0915-1.1040 at the start of the week, after which everything should return to normal;
    - the GBP/USD pair is expected to fluctuate again just like EUR/USD while at the same time moving in a sideways corridor between 1.4700 and 1.5000 under bearish influence;
    - unlike the Brit, the USD/JPY pair will, on the contrary, strive upwards and try to regain last week’s losses, the nearest target being 121.20. With this, neither the indicators nor the analysts rule out that over the first day or two the pair will still continue to fall;
    - judging by the indicators, the forecast for USD/CHF is as follows: at first (but not for long) strictly downwards and then strictly upwards, back to the coveted mark of 1.0000. Considering that the transfer of Friday’s indications to Monday is not that wise, it is possible that the pair will turn around and move upwards straight away, from the first tick. The analysts in general support this.

    As for last week’s forecast:
    - the analysts’ predictions for EUR/USD’s tendency turned out to be right. They forecast that the pair would rebound upwards to 1.1000-1.1200. Truth be told, the pair didn’t reach this level after all, although at its peak the rebound made almost 600 points;
    - regarding the GBP/USD pair, we predicted that the proud Brit will continue to trail the Euro. Just have a look at last week’s charts;
    - the USD/JPY pair didn’t meet our expectations. As predicted, the first half of the week it stayed in a lulling sideways trend within the narrow range of 121.140-121.50 but on Wednesday evening’s news, instead of shooting upwards, it plunged breaking through the support around 120.65-120.80;
    - as for USD/CHF, if its collapse in January was called “Black Thursday,” the events of last Wednesday can be safely dubbed “Dark Grey Wednesday.” We hope that the heavy clouds will disperse soon and the Swiss Frank will once again see the boundlessly blue Alpine skies.

    Roman Butko, NordFX

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  6. NordFX Sage

    NordFX Sage New Member

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    Equity Down, Oil Prices Up

    27.03.2015

    Oil prices continue to rise due to the military action started by a coalition of countries in Yemen. This, however, had no bearing on equity rates – world major indices closed in the red yesterday.

    As such in Europe, the British FTSE 100 dropped 1.37 percent down to 6,895.33 points, the German DAX shed 0.18 percent down to 11,843.68 points, and the French CAC 40 fell 0.29 percent finishing the trading session at 5,006.35 points.

    Russia’s indices also posted a drop – the MICEX index declined by 1.08 percent down to 1,581.84 points while the RTS index fell 1.52 percent to 868.62 points.

    In the USA, the Dow Jones shed 0.23 percent getting to 17,678.23 points, the S&P 500 dropped 0.24 percent to 2,056.15 points, and the NASDAQ fell 0.27 percent down to 4,863.36 points.

    The NYMEX price of futures for WTI oil for May rose by $2.07 and made $51.28 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of May futures for oil of mark Brent went up by $2.51 and reached $58.99 a barrel.

    On the global Forex market, EUR/USD has come to a halt as expected. At this point, it’s better to take a break and not enter the market.

    Anna Gorenkova
    NordFX Analyst
     
  7. NordFX Sage

    NordFX Sage New Member

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    Generalized Forex Forecast for 30 March - 3 April 2015

    Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies and forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we have to mention that, according to the “open hands” symbol in the table, more than a third of the analysts are at a loss. However, the remaining experts are much more unanimous in their predictions than before:
    - the forecast for EUR/USD remains the same – downwards trying to reach 1.0000 at least by the end of April. This week the pair may fall to around 1.0600-1.0750 where it will stabilize for some time;
    - almost the same can be expected from the British Pound – most analysts predict GBP/USD would fall to 1.4700;
    - as for USD/JPY, the forecasts of the analysts and of the indicators are contradictory. Yet, the pair is very likely to be in a bullish trend and try to conquer 120.50;
    - just like last week, the USD/CHF chart may resemble that one of USD/JPY. In any case, all analysts expect USD/CHF to return to 1.0000. However, the forecast for this week is a bit more modest – a rise to 0.9750 or somewhat higher to 0.9800.

    As for last week’s forecast:
    - when predicting EUR/USD’s behaviour, we didn’t rule out a further short-term upward trend to around 1.0915-1.1040, after which everything was supposed to get back to normal. As expected, the pair quickly went up to 1.1030, entered a sideways trend, remaining strictly in the set bounds, and then predictably returned to the level of the beginning of the week;
    - the forecast for GBP/USD was also confirmed – the pair stayed in the sideways corridor under bearish influence all week long;
    - the predicted fall of USD/JPY got prolonged, and the pair started to recover its losses only last Thursday managing to rise just to the average level of February by the end of the week;
    - a rare event occurred with the USD/CHF weekly chart basically repeating the USD/JPY chart, which overall matches the first scenario we suggested – at first the pair moves strictly downwards and then strictly upwards. With this, the upward movement doesn’t look too convincing so far and needs to be upheld this week.

    Roman Butko, NordFX

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  8. NordFX Sage

    NordFX Sage New Member

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    Euro Falls, Indices Go Up

    31.03.2015 07:00 GMT

    Yesterday the world’s equity markets closed on the rise. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 grew 0.53 percent up to 6,891.43 points, Germany’s DAX advanced 1.83 percent up to 12,086.01 points, and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.98 percent up to 5,083.52 points.

    On Russia’s floors, the MICEX index shot up by 2.52 percent making 1,611.22 points, and the RTS index advanced 2.5 percent up to 877.85 points.

    In the USA, the Dow Jones grew 1.49 percent up to 17,976.31 points, the S&P 500 added 1.22 percent reaching 2,086.24 points, and the NASDAQ gained 1.15 percent up to 4,947.44 points.

    Oil prices, however, continued to decline yesterday. The NYMEX price of WTI oil futures for May dropped by $0.19 and got to $48.68 a barrel. On London’s ICE, the price of Brent oil futures for May delivery fell by $0.12 and reached $56.29 a barrel.

    On the Forex market, EUR/USD went down a little. Now the pair has quite a decent range for correction: 1.05-1.0960. The current decrease may extend to 1.0640.

    Anna Gorenkova
    NordFX Analyst
     
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