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When NOT to trade with Expert Advisors

Discussion in 'Forex Discussions' started by scottfx99, Mar 28, 2010.

  1. scottfx99

    scottfx99 New Member

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    When NOT to trade with Expert Advisors

    Knowing when not to trade is as important as knowing what EA:s you should use and what to settings to use. In general, during high impact news, markets tend to be very volatile and unpredictable. This is when Expert Advisors tend to lose a lot of money. Avoiding to trade during these periods can help you to significantly improve your trading performance.
    So, when should trading be avoided? I would like to highlight two particular reoccurring news events, the release of the US unemployment statistics (NFP) and the presentation of results from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

    Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)

    If there is an economic indicator that has a direct and powerful impact on the U.S. dollar so it is Non-Submitted Payroll, the U.S. unemployment figures. This important piece of the puzzle and try to analyze appreciated by the world's economists. News services such as Bloomberg news then collect these estimates, which are "market expectations". Is it so that the actual figures differ substantially from the expected result, we significantly changed the world currency pair, as many investors acting on economists' estimates.

    What is NFP? Each month brings together U.S. Department of Labor data from 160 000 private employers and governmental organizations. These 160 000 employers equivalent to approximately 400 000 unique sites. Data excludes individuals who work in government, private households, non-profit organization and farmers, producing a total of individuals included in the NAP 80% of U.S. GDP.

    NFP is usually presented at 8:30 a.m. EST on the first Friday of every month. It’s a good idea to shut off your Expert Advisors the day before and on the NFP day since markets tend to be very unpredictable.



    FOMC

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It is responsible for formulation of a monetary policy designed to promote economic growth, full employment, stable prices, and a sustainable pattern of international trade and payments. The FOMC in its current form was created by the Banking Act of 1935. The FOMC sets monetary policy by specifying the short-term objective for open market operations--purchases and sales of U.S. government and federal agency securities. Open market operations, the principal tool of monetary policy, affect the provision of reserves to depository institutions and, in turn, the cost and availability of money and credit in the U.S. economy. Currently, the objective is a target level for the federal funds rate (the rate that depository institutions charge on overnight sales of immediately available funds among themselves).
    The release of the FOMC meeting statements is one of the strongest market movers. It is highly recommended not to trade a couple of days before and after these events. The remaining 2010 FOMC Meetings are scheduled on the following dates:

    April 27-28
    June 22-23
    August 10
    September 21
    November 2-3
    December 14

    So to conclude, avoid trading during these days and also shut off your expert advisors on the first Friday of every month, and the day before.

    These suggestions will not make you rich alone, but if you incorporate them in your current automated trading strategy, you should see a nice improvement in profitability over time.
     
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