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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

Discussion in 'Major Currency Pairs' started by WindsorBrokers, Oct 8, 2013.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Content Contributor

    Feb 18, 2010
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    The Euro consolidates within 1.3540/90 range, after pullback from 1.3645 peak found support at 1.3540, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3476/1.3645 upleg. Hourly studies are weak, while 4-hour RSI holds in the neutral area; MACD just above the midline and loss of momentum maintains the downside risk. However, the downside is for now protected by ascending 55DMA, currently at 1.3543 that makes initial support, ahead of range floor at 1.3540, while sideways-moving 20DMA at 1.3572 limits upside attempts, ahead of range top at 1.3590. Break of either side to define near-term direction, with 4-hour bearish divergence, seeing more downside risk. Bearish resumption requires break below 1.3540/00 supports to open way for further correction, while alternative scenario sees break above 1.3600 barrier, needed to neutralize near-term bears.

    Res: 1.3590; 1.3600; 1.3630; 1.3645
    Sup: 1.3555; 1.3537; 1.3500; 1.3460



    Cable corrects recent losses that found support at important 1.6000 zone, with rally being so far capped at 1.61 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6259/1.6005 decline. Slightly improved hourly studies still lack momentum for further recovery, as bears dominate on 4-hour studies and price action being limited by 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover. Downside risk remains in play and sees potential for further corrective easing, with slide below 1.6000 handle, expected to open next supports at 1.5940, 24/09 higher low and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5427/1.6259 rally and psychological 1.5900 support. Break here to signal near-term top at 1.6259 and allow for deeper pullback of larger 1.4812/1.6259 rally that would also put aside near-term targets at 1.6300/80. Regain of 1.6180/1.6200 barriers is required sideline downside risk and signal higher low formation.

    Res 1.6100; 1.6133; 1.6162; 1.6199
    Sup: 1.6060; 1.6024; 1.6005; 1.5980



    The greenback remains at the back foot against the yen, as confirmed break below 97.00/96.80 supports, heads towards the next significant level at 95.78, 08/08 low. The price action cracked 200DMA at 96.70, with losses being so far contained by broken bear-trendline and previous channel resistance, drawn off 101.52 peak. Corrective bounce above 97.00 barrier, triggered by oversold near-term studies, should not have stronger impact, as structure remains negative and keeps the downside favored. Immediate barriers lay at 95.47, and 4-hour 55DMA at 97.70, with rallies to be ideally capped at 98.00/50 zone, to maintain negative sentiment.

    Res: 97.21; 97.47; 97.70; 98.00
    Sup: 96.55; 96.00; 95.90; 95.78



    Near-term focus shifts higher, as the price extends rally from 0.9280 near-term base and approaches pivotal 0.9455 barrier, on a renewed attack. With hourly studies moving out of neutral mode and 4-hour indicators, being in positive territory, near-term scenario favors further bulls and eventual attempt at key barrier at 0.9526, 18/09 peak. However, clearance of 0.9455, is seen as initial requirement. Otherwise, prolonged consolidation above 0.9280, would the likely scenario.

    Res: 0.9457; 0.9500; 0.9526; 0.9550
    Sup: 0.9410; 0.9389; 0.9368; 0.9350


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