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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

Discussion in 'Major Currency Pairs' started by WindsorBrokers, Feb 3, 2014.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Content Contributor

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    EURUSD

    The Euro ended week in red, following last week’s sell-off from 1.37 resistance zone, where gains were rejected in several attempts. Fresh acceleration lower eventually broke below near-term platform and congestion floor at 1.35 zone, with fresh low posted at 1.3478, where the price entered consolidative phase. Oversold near-term studies favor further consolidative/corrective action, with initial resistance at 1.35 zone, being tested for now, ahead of 1.3540, 30/31 Jan consolidation floor and 23.6% retracement of 1.3738/1.3478 descend and 1.3580 previous congestion top and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, where rallies would face solid resistance. Violation of the latter and psychological 1.3600 barrier, 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line, is required to sideline bears. Otherwise fresh leg lower will look for test of initial targets at 1.3457, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2754/1.3892; 1.3435, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3294/1.3738 upleg and psychological / higher platform support at 1.3400, seen in extension, with 200SMA at 1.3370 expected to come in near-term focus. Negative technicals on the larger picture favor further downside.

    Res: 1.3508; 1.3540; 1.3580; 1.3600
    Sup: 1.3478; 1.3457; 1.3435; 1.3400

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    GBPUSD

    Cable remains under pressure and ended week in red, as the third wave of the weakness from 1.6668 that commenced from 1.6623, met its 100% expansion at 1.6427, with price probing below psychological / higher platform support at 1.6400. Break lower to open 1.6352, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion, ahead of key near-term support at 1.6307, 17 Jan low, extension to which to confirm full-retracement of 1.6307/1.6667 upleg, with break lower to confirm reversal off 1.6668 and spark stronger correction of broader uptrend that started from 1.48 base. Near-term technicals remain negative, with daily studies building bearish momentum and keeping the downside in near-term focus. Initial resistances lay at 1.6440 and 1.6480, with psychological 1.65 barrier expected to cap corrective rallies.

    Res: 1.6440; 1.6480; 1.6500; 1.6525
    Sup: 1.6379; 1.6336; 1.6307; 1.6260

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    USDJPY

    The pair remains in near-term consolidative phase above fresh low of 27 Jan at 101.75, with basing attempt seen at 102 support and upside attempts capped at 102.40. Negative tone prevails on lower timeframes studies and keeps the downside under pressure, as long as initial 102.40 barrier caps. Any extension higher would shift focus towards the upper range boundary at 103 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 104.83/101.75 / 4-hour 55SMA, above to sideline downside risk and expose pivotal 103.43 barrier, 29 Jan lower top. Otherwise, risk of losing 102.00 and 101.75 handles would remain in play, with fresh bearish extension seen towards strong support at 101.00, round figure support, 50% retracement of 96.55/105.43 ascend and daily 100SMA.

    Res: 102.40; 102.80; 103.00; 103.43
    Sup: 101.83; 101.75; 101.60; 101.00


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    AUDUSD

    The pair continues to trade within one-week 0.8700/0.8820 range, with neutral tone prevailing in near-term studies. Break of either side of the range is required to define near-term direction, as break higher would signal an end of consolidative phase and resume recovery off 0.8658, with key near-term barrier at 0.8886, 22 Jan high, expected to come in focus. Alternatively, loss of range floor and higher low at 0.8700, which was briefly tested last Friday, would weaken the structure and re-expose key support at 0.8658, 24 Jan fresh low, below which would trigger extension of multi-year downtrend from 1.1079, 2011 peak.

    Res: 0.8800; 0.8824; 0.8871; 0.8886
    Sup: 0.8737; 0.8709; 0.8676; 0.8658

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