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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

Discussion in 'Major Currency Pairs' started by WindsorBrokers, Apr 17, 2014.

  1. WindsorBrokers

    WindsorBrokers Content Contributor

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    EURUSD

    The Euro holds positive near-term tone off fresh low at strong 1.3789 support, as the price stabilizes above 1.38 higher base, supported by daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen line. Recovery attempts are so far limited at initial 1.3850 barrier, also 50% retracement of 1.3904/1.3789 fall and ahead of more significant 1.3860, weekly highs / last Friday’s low and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3904/1.3789. Sustained break here that also requires to fill Monday’s gap, is required to bring bulls fully in play for eventual attempt at 1.3904, 11 Apr high and possible attack at key 1.3965 high. Hourly structure is positive, while neutral tone prevails on 4-hour studies. Break above initial barriers and near-term congestion tops is required to revive 4-hour bulls and avert risk of re-visiting 1.3800 and more important 1.3789, loss of which will be bearish.

    Res: 1.3850; 1.3860; 1.3904; 1.3946
    Sup: 1.3824; 1.3800; 1.3789; 1.3760

    [​IMG]



    GBPUSD

    Cable eventually broke above multi-month congestion tops at 1.6820 and trades at levels last time seen in 2009. However, marginal break higher requires today’s close above 1.6820, to confirm bullish resumption of the bull-leg from 1.4812, July 2013 low and open 1.6877, November 2009 peak and 1.6900 in extension. Sustained break higher is required to shift focus towards psychological 1.7000 barrier and key longer-term resistance at 1.7041, August 2009 peak. Overall picture remains bullish and keeps the upside favored, with corrective dips to face initial support at 1.6780 higher base. Key near-term support lies at 1.67 base and only break here would sideline near-term bulls.

    Res: 1.6836; 1.6877; 1.6900; 1.6950
    Sup: 1.6780; 1.6768; 1.6750; 1.6725

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    USDJPY

    Acceleration above near-term congestion top at 102.00 failed to clear 102.38, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 104.11/101.31 descend and daily Ichimoku cloud top, as rally stalled here. Subsequent return to the levels below 102 handle, now support, retraced 50% of larger 100.74/102.35 ascend, would signal false break and risk further weakness, if the price slides below 101.70, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / bull-trendline drawn off 101.31 low. Negative hourly studies support such scenario. However, positive tone, persisting on 4-hour chart, would keep the upside favored if the price stabilizes above 102 handle and renewed attempt higher breaks above 102.38, minimum requirement to confirm bear-term base at 101.31 and allow for stronger recovery. Strong resistance and breakpoint lies at 103 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 104.11/101.31 descend / daily Ichimoku cloud top, where possible stronger rallies should be capped , as larger picture bears remain in play.

    Res: 102.38; 102.71; 103.00; 103.29
    Sup: 101.85; 101.70; 101.50; 101.31

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    AUDUSD

    The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode after corrective attempt off fresh low at 0.9331, 50% retracement of 0.9204/0.9460 upleg, stays capped under psychological 0.9400 barrier. Near-term technicals are neutral, with break of 0.94 barrier required to confirm higher base and re-open fresh high at 0.9460. Otherwise, the downside would remain at risk in the near-term, with loss of 0.9331 temporary support, expected to trigger fresh extension of corrective pullback from 0.9460, towards 0.9300 breakpoint, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / previous peaks of 28 Mar / 01 Apr, loss of which to sideline near-term bulls in favor of stronger correction.

    Res: 0.9400; 0.9424; 0.9460; 0.9500
    Sup: 0.9351; 0.9331; 0.9300; 0.9253

    [​IMG]





    GOLD

    Spot Gold trades in neutral near-term tone, with recovery attempts off fresh low at 1286, being capped at 1306, as the price failed to sustain gains above psychological 1300 barrier. Near-term technicals remain weak and keep the downside favored for eventual push to 1277, 01 Apr low, to full retrace 1277/1330 recovery phase. Break lower to confirm lower top formation at 1330 and spark fresh extension of larger downmove from 1392, 17 Mar peak and expose 1262, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 1182/1392 rally. Daily studies are negative and keep the downside risk in play, while only sustained break and weekly close above 1300 support, also 200SMA, would ease immediate bear-pressure.

    Res: 1308; 1313; 1319; 1324
    Sup: 1293; 1286; 1277; 1262





    SILVER

    Spot Silver remains directionless after unsuccessful attempts at the both sides of near-term range. Hourly studies are flat, however, positive tone persists on 4-hour chart that keeps hopes of renewed attempts higher, where 20.37, 10 Apr rally peak and 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend, offer initial barriers and pivotal points. Sustained break here is required to signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, downside will remain at risk, as larger picture studies remain bearish and risk further weakness for completion of 18.99/22.15 ascend, with the notion being supported by triple MA’s bear-crosses, 20/200SMA’s death-cross and 20/55 / 20/100 SMA’s bearish crosses.

    Res: 20.12; 20.19; 20.37; 20.40
    Sup: 19.90; 19.77; 19.60; 19.56
     
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